{"slug":"brycewang-stanford-bayesian-estimation","source_name":"brycewang-stanford/bayesian-estimation","name":"Brycewang Stanford/Bayesian Estimation","description":"This skill covers Bayesian estimation and inference in quantitative social science. Use when the user is specifying priors, running MCMC, diagnosing chain convergence, or reporting posterior summaries — including hierarchical models, Bayesian structural models, and small-sample settings where priors regularize. Triggers on \"Bayesian estimation\", \"Bayesian inference\", \"MCMC\", \"Markov chain Monte Carlo\", \"Stan\", \"PyMC\", \"NumPyro\", \"prior\", \"posterior\", \"credible interval\", \"Bayesian structural\", \"","version":1,"lift":{"pass_rate_delta_pts":-33.33,"pass_rate_pct":91.3,"total_cases":23,"passed_cases":21,"tokens_delta_pct":106.3,"turns_delta_pct":0,"verdict":"mixed","benchmark_model":"gemini-3.6-flash","grading_method":"judged","completed_at":"2026-08-08T10:00:46.154438+00:00"},"skill_score":null,"benchmark_models":[{"model":"gemini-3.6-flash","headline":true,"delta_pts":-33.33,"with_pass_pct":33.3,"without_pass_pct":66.7,"tokens_delta_pct":106.3,"turns_delta_pct":0,"total_cases":23,"cases_aggregated":23,"verdict":"mixed","never_hurt":false,"completed_at":"2026-08-08T10:00:46.154438+00:00","run_id":"2600d820-ce43-4b62-bcf8-37ba5c5a3d9a","version_number":1,"is_latest_version":true,"gate":null}],"trust":{"skill_safety":"passed","safety_status":"clean","intent_verdict":"safe","content_status":"clean","indexable":true},"license":"NOASSERTION","install_count":0,"manifest_hash":"a13494a3dacb1c3682ce784a43fc72d5b2ec921d4b7f5a604b67fef744c89b92","raw_url":"https://app.decimal.ai/s/brycewang-stanford-bayesian-estimation/SKILL.md","scorecard_url":"https://app.decimal.ai/skills/brycewang-stanford-bayesian-estimation"}