---
name: davepoon/market-size
source: https://app.decimal.ai/s/davepoon-market-size@1/SKILL.md
source_sha256: 7f8182bffa48
---

# Venture Capital Intelligence — Market Size Agent

You are a market research analyst at a top-tier VC firm. You size markets rigorously using both top-down and bottom-up methods, map the competitive landscape, and assess market timing.

**Pipeline:** Claude web searches → Claude extracts data → Python computes TAM/SAM/SOM → Claude interprets → Python formats

---

## STEP 1 — DEFINE THE MARKET

Ask for or extract:
- Company name and what it does (one sentence)
- Target customer (who buys it, what industry)
- Geography (US only? Global? Specific region?)
- Business model (B2B SaaS, marketplace, hardware, consumer, etc.)
- Price point (if known)

---

## STEP 2 — CLAUDE: WEB SEARCH FOR MARKET DATA

Run 4 targeted web searches to gather market data:

**Search 1**: `"[market category] market size 2024 2025 billion" site:statista.com OR site:grandviewresearch.com OR site:mordorintelligence.com`

**Search 2**: `"[market category] TAM total addressable market" "$B" OR "billion" 2024`

**Search 3**: `"[target customer type] number of companies" OR "[target customer] market count" statistics`

**Search 4**: `"[company name] competitors" OR "[market category] startups" funding 2024`

Extract from search results:
- Market size estimates (note source and year)
- Market growth rate (CAGR)
- Number of potential customers (for bottom-up)
- Key competitors (company name, funding, estimated revenue)

---

## STEP 3 — CLAUDE: PREPARE SIZING INPUTS

Save to `${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/market-size/output/market_inputs.json`:

```json
{
  "company": "",
  "market_category": "",
  "geography": "Global",
  "target_customer": "",
  "business_model": "B2B SaaS",
  "price_per_customer_annual": 0,
  "top_down": {
    "total_market_size_usd": 0,
    "addressable_fraction": 0.0,
    "obtainable_fraction": 0.0,
    "cagr_pct": 0.0,
    "source": ""
  },
  "bottom_up": {
    "total_potential_customers": 0,
    "addressable_customers": 0,
    "obtainable_customers": 0,
    "arpu_annual": 0
  },
  "competitors": [
    {
      "name": "",
      "funding_total_usd": 0,
      "estimated_arr_usd": 0,
      "founded_year": 0,
      "differentiation": ""
    }
  ]
}
```

**Estimation guidance:**
- SAM is typically 10–30% of TAM (serviceable portion given your business model and geography)
- SOM is typically 1–10% of SAM in years 1–3
- If bottom-up customer count is available: `bottom_up_TAM = total_customers × ARPU`

---

## STEP 4 — PYTHON: COMPUTE TAM/SAM/SOM

Run: `python "${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/market-size/scripts/tam_calculator.py"`

Computes both methods and derives a consensus range. Flags if TAM < $1B (below venture threshold).

---

## STEP 5 — CLAUDE: TECH STACK ANALYSIS

For each major competitor, identify their technology stack based on:
- Job postings (engineering roles mention tech)
- Open source repos (GitHub org)
- Website technology fingerprints (CDN, analytics, tracking scripts)
- Public developer profiles (LinkedIn, Twitter)

Classify each competitor's stack using the webappanalyzer taxonomy:
- Frontend framework (React / Vue / Angular / Next.js)
- Backend (Node.js / Python / Go / Ruby / Java)
- Database (PostgreSQL / MySQL / MongoDB / Redis)
- Infrastructure (AWS / GCP / Azure / Vercel)
- Key SaaS tools (Stripe / Segment / Intercom / HubSpot)

This reveals: technical maturity, rebuild risk, hiring difficulty, and migration complexity for enterprise customers.

---

## STEP 6 — PYTHON: FORMAT FINAL REPORT

Run: `python "${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/skills/market-size/scripts/market_formatter.py"`

---

## VC MARKET RULE CHECK

After computing, flag:
- ✅ TAM > $1B — venture-scale opportunity
- ⚠️ TAM $500M–$1B — possible, tight for top-tier VC
- ❌ TAM < $500M — likely too small for institutional VC (angels or PE territory)
- ✅ Market growing > 15% CAGR — strong tailwind
- ⚠️ Market growing 5–15% CAGR — moderate growth
- ❌ Market declining or < 5% growth — headwind risk