---
name: mohitagw15856/tooling-risk-assessment
source: https://app.decimal.ai/s/mohitagw15856-tooling-risk-assessment@1/SKILL.md
source_sha256: 01f570e49a64
---

# Tooling Risk Assessment Skill

Cutting steel converts design uncertainty into cash at the worst exchange rate in hardware. This skill assesses a tooling decision the way a seasoned NPI/ME lead does: match tool class to forecast confidence, do the cavitation math against peak demand, put the T1→T2→T3 timeline on the calendar, price the "what if the design changes after tooling" scenario honestly, and write the kill criteria before the money moves.

## What This Skill Produces

- A soft vs hard tooling recommendation per part, with the tradeoff shown
- Cavitation and capacity math against the forecast ramp
- A T1 sample timeline with tuning-loop buffer
- An ECO-after-tooling cost narrative (steel-safe vs weld territory)
- Explicit kill criteria and total capital-at-risk summary

## Required Inputs

Ask for these if not provided; if forecast confidence is unstated, assume it is low and label the assumption:

- **Part list going to tool** — which parts, materials, cosmetic surfaces
- **Forecast** — peak monthly/weekly demand and lifetime volume, with confidence
- **Design maturity** — which build validated this geometry (pre-EVT? post-DVT?)
- **Cycle time estimates** and target resin(s)
- **Tooling quotes** if in hand — cost, cavitation, steel type, lead time
- **Hard dates** — launch window that the T1 timeline must serve

## Tooling Framework

**Tool class tradeoff:**

| | Soft tool (Al / P20 unhardened) | Hard tool (P20/H13 hardened steel) |
|---|---|---|
| Life | ~5k–100k shots | ~500k–1M+ shots |
| Lead time to T1 | ~3–6 weeks | ~8–12 weeks |
| Cost | ~30–50% of hard tool | Full cost |
| Change tolerance | Cheap to modify or scrap | Expensive; welds risk cosmetic surfaces |
| Right when | Design still moving; bridge builds; low lifetime volume | Design frozen post-DVT; high volume |

**Cavitation math** — show the work: parts/week/cavity = (3600 ÷ cycle-time-s) × press-hours/week × yield. Cavities needed = peak weekly demand ÷ parts/week/cavity, rounded up, plus a stated overhead for maintenance downtime. Sanity-check tool life: lifetime volume ÷ cavities vs shots-of-life; flag if a second tool is inevitable and when.

**T1 timeline** — T1 (first shots) at tool lead time; plan 2–3 tuning loops (T1→T2→T3) at ~2–3 weeks each for texture, warp, sink, and dimensional tuning. Cosmetic A-surfaces rarely pass at T1; do not let the schedule assume they will.

**ECO-after-tooling narrative** — classify the plausible changes: **steel-safe** (change removes steel / adds plastic — days, cheap), **weld/re-machine** (adds steel — weeks, risky on cosmetic surfaces), **new insert or new tool** (geometry change beyond repair — re-quote the lead time). State which open design questions land in which class.

## Output Format

### Tooling risk assessment: [product / part set]

1. **Recommendation** — tool class per part, cavitation, when to kick off, capital at risk
2. **Forecast basis** — the numbers used and their confidence `[assumed]` where inferred
3. **Capacity math** — the cavitation calculation shown, tool-life check
4. **Timeline** — kickoff → T1 → T2/T3 loops → parts for [build], vs the hard date
5. **Change-risk narrative** — open design questions mapped to steel-safe / weld / new-tool cost
6. **Kill criteria** — the specific findings (e.g. DVT reliability failure in a tooled part, forecast cut below X, cert failure implicating geometry) that stop or re-scope the tooling spend
7. **Risk register** — remaining risks with owner and trigger date

## Quality Checks

- [ ] Cavitation math is shown, not asserted, and uses peak demand — not average
- [ ] Tool life is checked against lifetime volume per cavity
- [ ] The timeline includes tuning loops, not just T1
- [ ] Every open design question is mapped to an ECO cost class
- [ ] Kill criteria are specific and dated — someone could actually invoke them
- [ ] Capital at risk is totalled, including tools that may be scrapped

## Anti-Patterns

- [ ] Do not size cavitation on average demand — peak week plus downtime overhead or the launch starves
- [ ] Do not cut hard tools on a design that has not survived its reliability testing — that is buying a very expensive opinion
- [ ] Do not let the schedule assume T1 parts are shippable — T1 parts are for tuning
- [ ] Do not treat "the factory says it's fine" as a change-risk analysis — classify each open question yourself
- [ ] Do not present a tooling recommendation without kill criteria — the moment to define "stop" is before the spend
- [ ] Do not hide the second-tool moment — if tool life runs out mid-ramp, say when and price it now