{"slug":"nicepkg-forecast-premortem","source_name":"nicepkg/forecast-premortem","name":"Nicepkg/Forecast Premortem","description":"Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.","version":1,"lift":{"pass_rate_delta_pts":45.45,"pass_rate_pct":81.8,"total_cases":22,"passed_cases":18,"tokens_delta_pct":190.5,"turns_delta_pct":0,"verdict":"mixed","benchmark_model":"gemini-3.6-flash","grading_method":"judged","completed_at":"2026-08-24T12:24:40.037606+00:00"},"skill_score":0.8182,"benchmark_models":[{"model":"gemini-3.6-flash","headline":true,"delta_pts":45.45,"with_pass_pct":81.8,"without_pass_pct":36.4,"tokens_delta_pct":190.5,"turns_delta_pct":0,"total_cases":22,"cases_aggregated":22,"verdict":"mixed","never_hurt":true,"completed_at":"2026-08-24T12:24:40.037606+00:00","run_id":"c7f47834-70e2-4f2b-9260-c08799cf3e40","version_number":1,"is_latest_version":true,"gate":null}],"trust":{"skill_safety":"passed","safety_status":"clean","intent_verdict":"safe","content_status":"clean","indexable":true},"license":"MIT","install_count":0,"manifest_hash":"24b7b85b949b73043023545954debd2b278ffbbfb168e83e60cf06b31a593b89","raw_url":"https://app.decimal.ai/s/nicepkg-forecast-premortem/SKILL.md","scorecard_url":"https://app.decimal.ai/skills/nicepkg-forecast-premortem"}