{"slug":"okhp3-okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets","source_name":"okhp3/okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets","name":"Okhp3/Okhp3 Outcome Modeling Markets","description":"Compare independent probabilities with prediction-market prices and evaluate expected value, calibration, liquidity, spread, and resolution risk. Use when analyzing event contracts, odds, edge, paper backtests, or risk-adjusted position sizing. Load `okhp3-outcome-modeling-core` first; this skill does not place or manage trades.","version":1,"lift":{"pass_rate_delta_pts":45.45,"pass_rate_pct":86.4,"total_cases":22,"passed_cases":19,"tokens_delta_pct":10.7,"turns_delta_pct":0,"verdict":"mixed","benchmark_model":"gemini-3.6-flash","grading_method":"judged","completed_at":"2026-08-04T06:44:47.705574+00:00"},"skill_score":0.8636,"benchmark_models":[{"model":"gemini-3.6-flash","headline":true,"delta_pts":45.45,"with_pass_pct":86.4,"without_pass_pct":40.9,"tokens_delta_pct":10.7,"turns_delta_pct":0,"total_cases":22,"cases_aggregated":22,"verdict":"mixed","never_hurt":true,"completed_at":"2026-08-04T06:44:47.705574+00:00","run_id":"94041888-fd22-42e8-89e4-59c993d6fe7a","version_number":1,"is_latest_version":true,"gate":null}],"trust":{"skill_safety":"passed","safety_status":"clean","intent_verdict":"safe","content_status":"clean","indexable":true},"license":"MIT","install_count":0,"manifest_hash":"4f2b0ad1a6a796d6645c5d82d0187f16cf97e6922b4c3b656079a5063f9ccda5","raw_url":"https://app.decimal.ai/s/okhp3-okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets/SKILL.md","scorecard_url":"https://app.decimal.ai/skills/okhp3-okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets"}