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Ensemble Forecasting · asgard-ai-platform | DecimalAI

AI/MLby asgard-ai-platform

Ensemble Forecasting

Combine multiple forecasting models into ensemble predictions for improved accuracy.

Never made a case worseMaintained

SkillScore

SkillScore96/100

Test results 96

Safety

3/3 safety checks passed

Code scan
Intent
Content

What it changes

61%96%of test cases passed +35 pts

Without skill14 of 23

With skill22 of 23

8 fixed14 passed either way1 still failing0 broke

Measured on gemini-3.6-flash8/27/2026v1

Track record

Agent runs: 0; All time

See one task, with and without the skill

One test taskWe are combining point forecasts for period 2025-09: ARIMA predicts 300, Prophet predicts 310, ETS predicts 305. Using simple equal weighting, format the output as JSON adhering to standard ensemble output format with ensemble_forecast, model_forecasts, weights, and metadata.

Without the skillMissed

With the skillPassed

Same model, same task. Answers are capped and redacted.

Use this skill

Your agent runs on

Adds every file the skill has, pinned so you can update it. No account needed.

pip install "decimalai>=0.15"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble
claude --plugin-dir "$(git rev-parse --show-toplevel 2>/dev/null || pwd)/.agents"

The same install from Python, for a notebook or a setup script.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.15"

Add the skill

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

print("Added. Start Claude Code with the command below.")

Start Claude Code with it

claude --plugin-dir "$(git rev-parse --show-toplevel 2>/dev/null || pwd)/.agents"

Type these in a Claude Code session. No account or API key. It writes the skill and any files it bundles, and asks first when its safety rating isn't Passed.

Add the DecimalAI plugin, once

/plugin marketplace add decimal-labs/decimalai-claude-plugins
/plugin install decimalai@decimalai

Install this skill

/decimalai:install asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

The plugin needs python3 and curl on your machine.

No Python or account. Claude Code picks it up in its next session.

Save it into your project

curl -fsSL --create-dirs -o .claude/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md https://app.decimal.ai/s/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.claude/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Claude Code docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[claude-agent-sdk]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

import asyncio

from claude_agent_sdk import ClaudeAgentOptions
from decimalai.claude_agent_sdk import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

async def main():
    question = "Hello!"
    async with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
        async for message in run.query(options=ClaudeAgentOptions(max_turns=6)):
            print(message)

# In a notebook or async code: await main()
asyncio.run(main())

Prefer its own loader? ClaudeAgentOptions(plugins=[skills_plugin()], skills="all") reads the same folder. Use one or the other: a skill delivered both ways reaches the prompt twice.

The same install from Python, for a notebook or a setup script. agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[claude-agent-sdk]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

import asyncio

from claude_agent_sdk import ClaudeAgentOptions
from decimalai.claude_agent_sdk import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

async def main():
    question = "Hello!"
    async with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
        async for message in run.query(options=ClaudeAgentOptions(max_turns=6)):
            print(message)

# In a notebook or async code: await main()
asyncio.run(main())

Prefer its own loader? ClaudeAgentOptions(plugins=[skills_plugin()], skills="all") reads the same folder. Use one or the other: a skill delivered both ways reaches the prompt twice.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

import asyncio
from pathlib import Path
from claude_agent_sdk import ClaudeAgentOptions, query

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
options = ClaudeAgentOptions(system_prompt=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}", max_turns=6)

async def main():
    async for message in query(prompt="Hello!", options=options):
        print(message)

# In a notebook or async code: await main()
asyncio.run(main())

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Claude Agent SDK docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[openai-agents]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

from agents import Agent, Runner
from decimalai.openai_agents import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = Agent(
    name=support.name,
    instructions=support.instructions,  # your prompt, then the skill list
    tools=[*support.tools],             # your tools, then load_skill
)
# In a notebook or async code: result = await Runner.run(agent, "Hello!")
result = Runner.run_sync(agent, "Hello!")

Using SandboxAgent? capabilities=[Shell(), decimalai.openai_agents.sandbox_skills()] points its own loader at the same folder.

Install

pip install "decimalai[openai-agents]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

from agents import Agent, Runner
from decimalai.openai_agents import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = Agent(
    name=support.name,
    instructions=support.instructions,  # your prompt, then the skill list
    tools=[*support.tools],             # your tools, then load_skill
)
# In a notebook or async code: result = await Runner.run(agent, "Hello!")
result = Runner.run_sync(agent, "Hello!")

Using SandboxAgent? capabilities=[Shell(), decimalai.openai_agents.sandbox_skills()] points its own loader at the same folder.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from agents import Agent, Runner

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = Agent(name="support", instructions=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}")
# In a notebook or async code: result = await Runner.run(agent, "Hello!")
result = Runner.run_sync(agent, "Hello!")

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

OpenAI Agents docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[openai]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

import json

from openai import OpenAI
from decimalai.openai import agent_config

client = OpenAI()
# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")


def lookup_order(order_id: str) -> str:
    return f"Order {order_id} shipped yesterday."


# Your tools, as Chat Completions takes them, and what answers each.
TOOLS = [{"type": "function", "function": {
    "name": "lookup_order",
    "description": "Look up the status of an order.",
    "parameters": {"type": "object", "properties": {"order_id": {"type": "string"}},
                   "required": ["order_id"]},
}}]
FUNCTIONS = {"lookup_order": lookup_order}

question = "Where is order A1001?"
with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
    # run.system is your prompt, then the skill list.
    messages = [{"role": "system", "content": run.system}, run.message]
    while True:
        reply = client.chat.completions.create(
            model="gpt-5.4-mini",
            messages=messages,
            tools=[*TOOLS, *run.tools],  # your tools, then load_skill
        ).choices[0].message
        messages.append(reply)
        if not reply.tool_calls:
            break
        for call in reply.tool_calls:
            # load_skill is answered by the run; your own tools by FUNCTIONS.
            function = FUNCTIONS.get(call.function.name)
            messages.append(run.tool_result(call) or {
                "role": "tool", "tool_call_id": call.id,
                "content": function(**json.loads(call.function.arguments)) if function
                else f"There is no tool named {call.function.name!r}.",
            })
print(reply.content)

# The Responses API takes run.response_tools instead of run.tools.

Install

pip install "decimalai[openai]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

import json

from openai import OpenAI
from decimalai.openai import agent_config

client = OpenAI()
# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")


def lookup_order(order_id: str) -> str:
    return f"Order {order_id} shipped yesterday."


# Your tools, as Chat Completions takes them, and what answers each.
TOOLS = [{"type": "function", "function": {
    "name": "lookup_order",
    "description": "Look up the status of an order.",
    "parameters": {"type": "object", "properties": {"order_id": {"type": "string"}},
                   "required": ["order_id"]},
}}]
FUNCTIONS = {"lookup_order": lookup_order}

question = "Where is order A1001?"
with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
    # run.system is your prompt, then the skill list.
    messages = [{"role": "system", "content": run.system}, run.message]
    while True:
        reply = client.chat.completions.create(
            model="gpt-5.4-mini",
            messages=messages,
            tools=[*TOOLS, *run.tools],  # your tools, then load_skill
        ).choices[0].message
        messages.append(reply)
        if not reply.tool_calls:
            break
        for call in reply.tool_calls:
            # load_skill is answered by the run; your own tools by FUNCTIONS.
            function = FUNCTIONS.get(call.function.name)
            messages.append(run.tool_result(call) or {
                "role": "tool", "tool_call_id": call.id,
                "content": function(**json.loads(call.function.arguments)) if function
                else f"There is no tool named {call.function.name!r}.",
            })
print(reply.content)

# The Responses API takes run.response_tools instead of run.tools.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from openai import OpenAI

client = OpenAI()
skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
reply = client.chat.completions.create(
    model="gpt-5.4-mini",
    messages=[
        {"role": "system", "content": f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}"},
        {"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"},
    ],
).choices[0].message

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

OpenAI SDK docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[anthropic]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

import anthropic
from decimalai.anthropic import agent_config

client = anthropic.Anthropic()
# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

question = "Hello!"
with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
    answer = client.beta.messages.tool_runner(
        model="claude-haiku-5-5",
        max_tokens=4096,
        system=run.system,     # your prompt, then the skill list
        tools=[*run.tools],    # your tools, then load_skill
        messages=[{"role": "user", "content": question}],
    ).until_done()

Install

pip install "decimalai[anthropic]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

import anthropic
from decimalai.anthropic import agent_config

client = anthropic.Anthropic()
# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

question = "Hello!"
with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
    answer = client.beta.messages.tool_runner(
        model="claude-haiku-5-5",
        max_tokens=4096,
        system=run.system,     # your prompt, then the skill list
        tools=[*run.tools],    # your tools, then load_skill
        messages=[{"role": "user", "content": question}],
    ).until_done()

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
import anthropic

client = anthropic.Anthropic()
skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
reply = client.messages.create(
    model="claude-haiku-5-5",
    max_tokens=4096,
    system=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}",
    messages=[{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}],
)

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Anthropic docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[google-genai]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

from google import genai
from google.genai import types
from decimalai.google_genai import agent_config

client = genai.Client()
# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")


def lookup_order(order_id: str) -> str:
    return f"Order {order_id} shipped yesterday."


# Your functions, as declarations for the model, and what answers each.
TOOLS = [{"function_declarations": [{
    "name": "lookup_order",
    "description": "Look up the status of an order.",
    "parameters_json_schema": {"type": "object", "properties": {"order_id": {"type": "string"}},
                               "required": ["order_id"]},
}]}]
FUNCTIONS = {"lookup_order": lookup_order}

question = "Where is order A1001?"
with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
    config = types.GenerateContentConfig(
        system_instruction=run.system,     # your prompt, then the skill list
        tools=[*TOOLS, *run.tool_params],  # your functions, then load_skill
    )
    contents = [{"role": "user", "parts": [{"text": run.message}]}]
    while True:
        response = client.models.generate_content(
            model="gemini-3.5-flash", contents=contents, config=config,
        )
        if not response.function_calls:
            break
        contents.append(response.candidates[0].content)
        parts = []
        for call in response.function_calls:
            # load_skill is answered by the run; your own functions by FUNCTIONS.
            # A loop of your own rather than automatic function calling, which
            # raises KeyError when the model asks for a function you did not pass.
            function = FUNCTIONS.get(call.name)
            parts.append(run.tool_result(call) or {"function_response": {
                "name": call.name, "id": call.id,
                "response": {"result": function(**(call.args or {})) if function
                             else f"There is no function named {call.name!r}."},
            }})
        contents.append({"role": "user", "parts": parts})
print(response.text)

Install

pip install "decimalai[google-genai]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

from google import genai
from google.genai import types
from decimalai.google_genai import agent_config

client = genai.Client()
# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")


def lookup_order(order_id: str) -> str:
    return f"Order {order_id} shipped yesterday."


# Your functions, as declarations for the model, and what answers each.
TOOLS = [{"function_declarations": [{
    "name": "lookup_order",
    "description": "Look up the status of an order.",
    "parameters_json_schema": {"type": "object", "properties": {"order_id": {"type": "string"}},
                               "required": ["order_id"]},
}]}]
FUNCTIONS = {"lookup_order": lookup_order}

question = "Where is order A1001?"
with support.run(question) as run:  # one user message, one run
    config = types.GenerateContentConfig(
        system_instruction=run.system,     # your prompt, then the skill list
        tools=[*TOOLS, *run.tool_params],  # your functions, then load_skill
    )
    contents = [{"role": "user", "parts": [{"text": run.message}]}]
    while True:
        response = client.models.generate_content(
            model="gemini-3.5-flash", contents=contents, config=config,
        )
        if not response.function_calls:
            break
        contents.append(response.candidates[0].content)
        parts = []
        for call in response.function_calls:
            # load_skill is answered by the run; your own functions by FUNCTIONS.
            # A loop of your own rather than automatic function calling, which
            # raises KeyError when the model asks for a function you did not pass.
            function = FUNCTIONS.get(call.name)
            parts.append(run.tool_result(call) or {"function_response": {
                "name": call.name, "id": call.id,
                "response": {"result": function(**(call.args or {})) if function
                             else f"There is no function named {call.name!r}."},
            }})
        contents.append({"role": "user", "parts": parts})
print(response.text)

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from google import genai
from google.genai import types

client = genai.Client()
skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
response = client.models.generate_content(
    model="gemini-3.5-flash",
    contents="Hello!",
    config=types.GenerateContentConfig(system_instruction=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}"),
)

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Gemini API docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[langchain]" langchain-openai
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

from langchain.agents import create_agent
from decimalai.langchain import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = create_agent(
    "openai:gpt-5.4-mini",
    tools=[],                         # your tools; the middleware adds load_skill
    middleware=[support.middleware],  # your prompt, the skill list and load_skill
)
result = agent.invoke({"messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}]})

Install

pip install "decimalai[langchain]" langchain-openai

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

from langchain.agents import create_agent
from decimalai.langchain import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = create_agent(
    "openai:gpt-5.4-mini",
    tools=[],                         # your tools; the middleware adds load_skill
    middleware=[support.middleware],  # your prompt, the skill list and load_skill
)
result = agent.invoke({"messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}]})

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from langchain.agents import create_agent

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = create_agent("openai:gpt-5.4-mini", tools=[], system_prompt=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}")
result = agent.invoke({"messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}]})

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

LangChain docs

CrewAI's own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" "crewai>=1.15.27"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

import decimalai.crewai
from crewai import Agent, Crew, Task

agent = Agent(
    role="Support", goal="Help the customer", backstory="A support agent.",
    llm=llm,                               # your own CrewAI LLM
    skills=decimalai.crewai.skills(),      # the installed folder
    tools=decimalai.crewai.skill_tools(),  # reads a skill's files, runs its scripts
)
task = Task(description="Hello!", expected_output="an answer", agent=agent)
Crew(agents=[agent], tasks=[task]).kickoff()

The same install from Python, for a notebook or a setup script. CrewAI's own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" "crewai>=1.15.27"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

import decimalai.crewai
from crewai import Agent, Crew, Task

agent = Agent(
    role="Support", goal="Help the customer", backstory="A support agent.",
    llm=llm,                               # your own CrewAI LLM
    skills=decimalai.crewai.skills(),      # the installed folder
    tools=decimalai.crewai.skill_tools(),  # reads a skill's files, runs its scripts
)
task = Task(description="Hello!", expected_output="an answer", agent=agent)
Crew(agents=[agent], tasks=[task]).kickoff()

No DecimalAI package. CrewAI's own loader reads the folder, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from crewai import Agent, Crew, Task

agent = Agent(
    role="Support", goal="Help the customer", backstory="A support agent.",
    llm=llm,                         # your own CrewAI LLM
    skills=[Path(".agents/skills")],
)
task = Task(description="Hello!", expected_output="an answer", agent=agent)
Crew(agents=[agent], tasks=[task]).kickoff()

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

CrewAI docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[adk]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

from decimalai.adk import DecimalAIPlugin, agent_config
from google.adk.agents import LlmAgent
from google.adk.apps import App

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = LlmAgent(
    name="support",          # ADK needs a Python identifier
    model="gemini-3.5-flash",
    instruction=support.instruction,  # your prompt, then the skill list
    tools=[*support.tools],           # your tools, then load_skill
)
# DecimalAIPlugin makes each invocation of runners built from this App one trace.
app = App(name="support", root_agent=agent, plugins=[DecimalAIPlugin()])

Prefer ADK's own loader? SkillToolset(skills=decimalai.adk.skills(), ...) reads the same folder. Use one or the other: a skill delivered both ways reaches the prompt twice.

Install

pip install "decimalai[adk]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

from decimalai.adk import DecimalAIPlugin, agent_config
from google.adk.agents import LlmAgent
from google.adk.apps import App

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = LlmAgent(
    name="support",          # ADK needs a Python identifier
    model="gemini-3.5-flash",
    instruction=support.instruction,  # your prompt, then the skill list
    tools=[*support.tools],           # your tools, then load_skill
)
# DecimalAIPlugin makes each invocation of runners built from this App one trace.
app = App(name="support", root_agent=agent, plugins=[DecimalAIPlugin()])

Prefer ADK's own loader? SkillToolset(skills=decimalai.adk.skills(), ...) reads the same folder. Use one or the other: a skill delivered both ways reaches the prompt twice.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from google.adk.agents import LlmAgent

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = LlmAgent(
    name="support",
    model="gemini-3.5-flash",
    instruction=lambda context: f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}",
)

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Google ADK docs

agent_config() hands your agent the skill. With no DecimalAI key it reads your project's files and sends nothing. Needs SDK 0.27 or newer.

Install

pip install "decimalai[pydantic-ai]"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

from pydantic_ai import Agent
from decimalai.pydantic_ai import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = Agent(
    "openai:gpt-4o-mini",
    name=support.name,
    tools=[],                 # your tools; the capability adds load_skill
    capabilities=[support],   # your prompt, the skill list and load_skill
)
# In a notebook or async code: result = await agent.run("Hello!")
result = agent.run_sync("Hello!")

On the Pydantic AI harness, decimalai.pydantic_ai_harness.skills(project) uses its own loader instead.

Install

pip install "decimalai[pydantic-ai]"

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

from pydantic_ai import Agent
from decimalai.pydantic_ai import agent_config

# With no DECIMAL_API_KEY this reads the skills your project lists, from disk.
support = agent_config("support", fallback="You are a helpful agent.")

agent = Agent(
    "openai:gpt-4o-mini",
    name=support.name,
    tools=[],                 # your tools; the capability adds load_skill
    capabilities=[support],   # your prompt, the skill list and load_skill
)
# In a notebook or async code: result = await agent.run("Hello!")
result = agent.run_sync("Hello!")

On the Pydantic AI harness, decimalai.pydantic_ai_harness.skills(project) uses its own loader instead.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from pydantic_ai import Agent

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = Agent("openai:gpt-4o-mini", instructions=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}")
# In a notebook or async code: result = await agent.run("Hello!")
result = agent.run_sync("Hello!")

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Pydantic AI docs

Deep Agents' own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" deepagents
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

import decimalai.deepagents
from deepagents import create_deep_agent

agent = create_deep_agent(model=model, **decimalai.deepagents.skills())
agent.invoke({"messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}]})

The default backend reads files but has no shell. To run a skill's scripts, pass skills(backend=LocalShellBackend(...)).

The same install from Python, for a notebook or a setup script. Deep Agents' own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" deepagents

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

import decimalai.deepagents
from deepagents import create_deep_agent

agent = create_deep_agent(model=model, **decimalai.deepagents.skills())
agent.invoke({"messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}]})

The default backend reads files but has no shell. To run a skill's scripts, pass skills(backend=LocalShellBackend(...)).

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from deepagents import create_deep_agent

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = create_deep_agent(model=model, system_prompt=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}")
agent.invoke({"messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Hello!"}]})

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Deep Agents docs

Its own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" agent-framework
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

import asyncio

from agent_framework import Agent
from decimalai.agent_framework import skills

agent = Agent(client=client, instructions="You are a helpful agent.", context_providers=[skills()])
asyncio.run(agent.run("Hello!"))

It caches skills by default, so restart the process after decimalai skills update.

The same install from Python, for a notebook or a setup script. Its own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" agent-framework

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

import asyncio

from agent_framework import Agent
from decimalai.agent_framework import skills

agent = Agent(client=client, instructions="You are a helpful agent.", context_providers=[skills()])
asyncio.run(agent.run("Hello!"))

It caches skills by default, so restart the process after decimalai skills update.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

import asyncio
from pathlib import Path
from agent_framework import Agent

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = Agent(client=client, instructions=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}")
asyncio.run(agent.run("Hello!"))

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Microsoft Agent Framework docs

Strands' own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" strands-agents
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

Add it to your agent

from decimalai.strands import skills
from strands import Agent
from strands.vended_tools import file_editor, shell

agent = Agent(
    model=model,                # always pass one: the default is Amazon Bedrock
    system_prompt="You are a helpful agent.",
    tools=[file_editor, shell],
    plugins=[skills()],
)
agent("Hello!")

Strands loads an agent's skills once, so build the agent again after decimalai skills update.

The same install from Python, for a notebook or a setup script. Strands' own skill loader reads the installed folder. No DecimalAI account needed.

Install

pip install "decimalai>=0.16" strands-agents

Add it to your agent

from decimalai import skillpkg

# Writes .agents/skills and .decimal/skills.toml. Safe to run twice.
result = skillpkg.add("asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble")
if result.exit_code:
    raise SystemExit(result.problems)

from decimalai.strands import skills
from strands import Agent
from strands.vended_tools import file_editor, shell

agent = Agent(
    model=model,                # always pass one: the default is Amazon Bedrock
    system_prompt="You are a helpful agent.",
    tools=[file_editor, shell],
    plugins=[skills()],
)
agent("Hello!")

Strands loads an agent's skills once, so build the agent again after decimalai skills update.

No DecimalAI package. The whole skill goes in every prompt, and nothing pins or updates it.

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Give it to your agent

from pathlib import Path
from strands import Agent

skill = Path(".agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md").read_text()
agent = Agent(model=model, system_prompt=f"You are a helpful agent.\n\n{skill}")
agent("Hello!")

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Strands docs

Adds every file the skill has, pinned so you can update it. Cursor, Copilot, Cline and Warp read this folder by themselves.

pip install "decimalai>=0.15"
decimalai skills add asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble

No Python or account. Cursor, Copilot, Cline and Warp read this folder by themselves.

Save it into your project

curl -fsSL --create-dirs -o .agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md https://app.decimal.ai/s/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Copy SKILL.md

Save it in your project, as

.agents/skills/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Cursor and other editors docs

Fetch the file and give its text to your model as instructions. No account or package needed.

Get the file

curl -fsSL https://app.decimal.ai/s/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

Read the summary as JSON

curl -fsSL https://app.decimal.ai/s/asgard-ai-platform-algo-forecast-ensemble.json

This gets SKILL.md only. The skill's 2 other files are not included.

Other ways to add it

Other setups docs

You don't need a DecimalAI account.

Version: v1, tested 8/27/2026
Source: asgard-ai-platform/skills ↗
License: MIT

Manage it in DecimalAI

Saved prompts and skills, pinned versions, and traces of this skill in your runs. DecimalAI does not run your agent.

Claude Code reads files from your project, so DecimalAI config does not apply there.

On Claude Agent SDK: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On OpenAI Agents: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On OpenAI SDK: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On Anthropic: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On Gemini API: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On LangChain: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On CrewAI: set DECIMAL_API_KEY and add decimalai.init(crewai=True) to record runs and skill use. The skill version stays in your repo.

On Google ADK: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On Pydantic AI: save the skill to an agent here, set DECIMAL_API_KEY, and the same code uses it with no command to run. Changes you save reach the next run with no redeploy.

On Deep Agents: set DECIMAL_API_KEY and add decimalai.init(langchain=True) to record runs and skill use. The skill version stays in your repo.

On Microsoft Agent Framework: set DECIMAL_API_KEY and add decimalai.init(otel=True, agent_name="support") to record runs and skill use. The skill version stays in your repo.

On Strands: set DECIMAL_API_KEY and add decimalai.init(otel=True, agent_name="support") to record runs and skill use. The skill version stays in your repo.

Editors read files from your project, so DecimalAI config does not apply there.

Anywhere else: record a use with decimalai.log_skill_activation() inside a trace.

Use this skill

SKILL.md

Ensemble Forecasting

Overview

Ensemble forecasting combines predictions from multiple models to reduce variance and improve accuracy. Simple average of 3-5 diverse models often outperforms the best individual model. Methods: equal-weight average, inverse-error weighting, stacking with a meta-learner. The "forecast combination puzzle" shows simple averaging is hard to beat.

When to Use

Trigger conditions:

Multiple forecasting models are available and perform similarly
Reducing forecast risk is more important than maximum accuracy
Building a production pipeline that's robust to model failure

When NOT to use:

When one model clearly dominates all others (just use that model)
When computational budget only allows one model

Algorithm

IRON LAW: Simple Average Often Beats Complex Combination
The "forecast combination puzzle" (Stock & Watson, 2004): equal-weight
averaging of diverse models frequently outperforms sophisticated
weighting schemes. This is because weight estimation introduces noise
that offsets the theoretical gain. Start with simple average and only
move to weighted combination if you have abundant validation data.

Phase 1: Input Validation

Generate forecasts from 3+ diverse models (e.g., ARIMA, ETS, Prophet, ML-based). Ensure models are truly diverse (different assumptions/approaches). Gate: 3+ model forecasts available, models use different methodologies.

Phase 2: Core Algorithm

Simple average: ŷ_ensemble = (1/M) × Σ ŷ_m

Inverse-error weighting: w_m = (1/MSE_m) / Σ(1/MSE_j), ŷ_ensemble = Σ w_m × ŷ_m

Stacking: Train a meta-model (linear regression) that learns optimal weights from cross-validated individual model predictions.

Phase 3: Verification

Compare ensemble vs individual models on held-out data. Ensemble should: have lower average error AND lower maximum error (more robust). Gate: Ensemble RMSE ≤ best individual model RMSE.

Phase 4: Output

Return ensemble forecast with component model contributions.

Output Format

{
  "ensemble_forecast": [{"period": "2025-04", "forecast": 1200, "lower_95": 1050, "upper_95": 1350}],
  "model_forecasts": {"arima": 1180, "prophet": 1220, "ets": 1200},
  "weights": {"arima": 0.35, "prophet": 0.30, "ets": 0.35},
  "metadata": {"method": "inverse_error_weighted", "ensemble_rmse": 42, "best_individual_rmse": 48}
}

Examples

Sample I/O

Input: ARIMA forecast=1180, Prophet=1220, ETS=1200 for next month sales Expected: Simple average = 1200. If ARIMA historically best (lowest MSE), weighted average shifts toward 1180.

Edge Cases

Input	Expected	Why
All models agree	Ensemble = individual	Consensus, high confidence
Models wildly disagree	Ensemble = compromise, wide CI	High uncertainty, flag for review
One model is outlier	Average dampens outlier	Ensemble robustness benefit

Gotchas

Diversity is key: Combining 5 ARIMA variants adds little. Combine fundamentally different approaches (statistical + ML + judgmental).
Weight instability: Optimal weights estimated on past data may not be optimal in the future. Simple average avoids this instability.
Correlation between errors: If model errors are correlated (they often are), ensemble improvement is limited. Seek models with uncorrelated errors.
Confidence intervals: Combining point forecasts is easy. Combining prediction intervals properly requires knowledge of error correlation structure.
Over-engineering risk: For stable, well-understood series, a single well-tuned model may outperform an ensemble. Ensembles shine for uncertain or volatile series.

References

For forecast combination methods survey, see references/combination-survey.md
For stacking meta-learner implementation, see references/stacking.md

When it activates

Automatically, when a task matches. Use this skill when the user needs to improve forecast reliability, combine ARIMA/Prophet/ETS outputs, or build a robust forecasting pipeline — even if they say 'combine forecasts', 'model averaging', or 'which forecast should I trust'.

About this skill

Automatic

AI Engineer pack

SkillSafety

✓ 3 of 3 passed

Code scan15 of 15 checks clean

0 critical · 0 warning · 0 info — scanner v8 — 10/22/2026

View 15 scanner checks

live_secretremote_code_executionreverse_shelldata_exfiltrationssrf_metadataagent_snoopinganti_refusaldestructive_commandsobfuscated_unicodeunicode_homoglyphopaque_blobsuspicious_urltool_overreachtrigger_abuseprompt_injection_phrasing

IntentSafe

LLM judge · does the skill do what it claims

ContentClean

LLM judge · policy & harmful-content review

Source

Imported

asgard-ai-platform / skills

algo-forecast-ensemble/SKILL.md

View on GitHub ↗

License MITImported 8/3/2026Version v1Bundled 2 files

Illustrative Want to see what asgard-ai-platform/algo-forecast-ensemble would put in front of your model? Preview the rendered body and check its trigger phrases — no LLM call, no signup.

Related skills

Skills that do similar work, with their headline benchmark lift.

From the same source and nearby in the catalogue.

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SkillScore

Safety

What it changes

Track record

Use this skill

Ensemble Forecasting

Overview

When to Use

Algorithm

Phase 1: Input Validation

Phase 2: Core Algorithm

Phase 3: Verification

Phase 4: Output

Output Format

Examples

Sample I/O

Edge Cases

Gotchas

References

When it activates

SkillSafety

Source

Related skills

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