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Use when evaluating whether a research idea clears the AER top-5 bar, when routing between AER, AER:Insights, and the AEJ family, or when sharpening a fuzzy contribution sentence into one publishable claim. Apply before any writing begins.
Passed 20 of 22 test cases with the skill, and 11 of 22 without it.
and 9 more in the full report
9 fixed11 passed either way2 still failing0 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 9 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
We are completing our pre-mortem review before moving to the literature and identification drafting phases. We have our filled contribution sentence, passed all 4 top-bar tests, selected AER: Insights as target, confirmed zero active kill switches, and listed 3 citing subfields. What should our final handoff block report as the next skill to execute?
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| The response specifies aer-literature as the NEXT SKILL value. | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
The single most expensive mistake in top-5 economics is writing a polished manuscript around a contribution that was always going to be desk-rejected. This skill is the pre-mortem: stress-test the idea, the audience, and the venue before the introduction is drafted.
AER accepts only a small share of submissions — on the order of 6–8% historically (Card and DellaVigna 2013, Nine Facts about Top Journals), and recent Reports of the Editor put the rate lower still. A large fraction of submissions are desk-rejected before ever reaching a referee; for AER: Insights, founding editor Amy Finkelstein has reported desk-rejecting "roughly 45%" of submissions. Either way, much of a paper's survival probability is determined before the first paragraph is written.
A paper clears the top-5 bar if and only if all four are true:
If any single test fails, the realistic target is an AEJ or a top field journal, not AER.
| Signal | Target |
|---|---|
| Cross-subfield interest + ≥ 40 pages of substance | AER |
| One sharp result, fits the AER: Insights word/exhibit formula, can be told without a long lit review | AER: Insights |
| Strong but subfield-bounded contribution; methodologically sound | AEJ: Applied / Policy / Macro / Micro |
| Conventional method, modest extension, useful for one literature | Top field journal |
| Field experiment with policy hook | AER, AEJ:Applied, or QJE — register in AEA RCT Registry before submission |
For AER: Insights specifically, the editor (Amy Finkelstein) has stated that a great short paper "makes one point and makes it clearly, concisely, and effectively." If you have a second point, write a second paper.
test cases passed, vs 11 / 22 without
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