CWICR Risk Calculator

CWICR Risk Calculator

Business Case

Problem Statement

Cost estimates have inherent uncertainty:

• What contingency to apply?
• What is the confidence range?
• Which items have highest risk?
• How to quantify uncertainty?

Solution

Risk-adjusted cost calculations using contingency analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distributions based on CWICR cost data.

Business Value

• Informed decisions - Understand estimate uncertainty
• Appropriate contingency - Data-driven risk allowance
• Confidence intervals - P50, P80, P90 estimates
• Risk prioritization - Focus on high-impact items

Technical Implementation

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from typing import Dict, Any, List, Optional, Tuple
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import datetime
from enum import Enum
import random


class RiskLevel(Enum):
    """Risk level categories."""
    LOW = "low"         # Well-defined, standard work
    MEDIUM = "medium"   # Some uncertainty
    HIGH = "high"       # Significant uncertainty
    VERY_HIGH = "very_high"  # Major unknowns