autoresearch-loop

Generalize Karpathy's autoresearch into a domain-adaptive improvement loop. The agent discovers what to measure, then runs a disciplined propose → trial → keep-or-revert loop, maintaining an explicit ledger of what was tried, kept, discarded, and implemented.

Read DESIGN.md once at the start of a run for the full architecture and the domain-specific tensions (metric latency/noise/cost, Goodhart gaming, cost-per-trial, reversibility). The phases below are the operating procedure.

Runtime: the loop's mechanics (run a trial, parse the metric, score confidence, keep/commit or discard/revert) are handled by the arl CLI over a .auto/ session folder — a Claude-native port of pi-autoresearch's tools. Read references/runtime-contract.md for the .auto/ layout, the METRIC name=value contract, MAD confidence scoring, and the arl init|run|log|status commands. Invoke it as node scripts/arl.mjs <cmd> (or arl if on PATH).

When NOT to run

• There is no metric that can be measured repeatably and cheaply enough within a trial budget. A loop with no trustworthy metric chases noise — stop and say so.
• The change surface is irreversible or unsafe to mutate experimentally (production data, customer-facing irreversible actions) without an explicit revert procedure in the adapter.

Phase 0 — FRAME (metric discovery)

Given {project, goal, context} — follow the procedure in references/metric-discovery.md (restate the goal as an outcome → enumerate candidates on the proxy→outcome spectrum → score on six axes → choose primary + guardrails + strategy → red-team for gaming). In brief:

1. Identify or select a domain adapter (adapters/*.md). If none fits, draft an inline adapter following references/domain-adapter-contract.md.
2. Propose candidate metrics (the adapter's menu is a prior, not the answer — reason from the goal). Score each on measurability, latency, noise, alignment, gameability, and cost. Prefer alignment over convenience for the primary.
3. Pick ONE primary objective, a set of guardrail metrics that must not regress, a trial budget (wall-clock and/or cost per trial), and a stop condition (budget exhausted, plateau over K trials, or target hit).
4. Choose the accept/reject strategy for this domain: deterministic-delta (fast, low-noise), significance-test, or bandit (noisy/delayed/expensive — e.g. ads).
5. Name the Goodhart guards (guardrail metrics, holdout, periodic critic).
6. Write runs/<id>/CHARTER.md. Confirm it with the user before spending real budget if trials cost money or touch production.

Phase 1 — BASELINE

Write .auto/measure.sh (and .auto/checks.sh if guardrails require it). arl init with the primary metric + direction, run the baseline (arl run), and record it (arl log --status keep --metric <baseline> --desc baseline). If the baseline can't be measured cleanly and repeatably, stop (see "When NOT to run").

Before proposing any change, profile where the cost actually is, and confirm the benchmark stresses the IN-SCOPE artifact — not a dependency, a native/FFI call, an external engine, the network, or unrelated code. (Validated the hard way on two live runs: once the assumed hot path was wrong twice and 97% of time was in an out-of-scope library; once the in-scope managed code was only 0.4–3.8% of wall-time because a Rust NIF dominated — the correct loop output there was a true negative, "re-scope," not a sub-noise edit. See adapters/code-perf-audit.md → Pitfalls.) Spend one profiling run on the managed-vs-native/dependency split; a loop that optimizes code which isn't the bottleneck produces confident, useless churn — and proving "no in-scope headroom" cheaply is itself a successful outcome.

Phase 2 — LOOP (until stop condition)

Each iteration:

1. Read the artifact, .auto/prompt.md, the .auto/log.jsonl tail, and .auto/ideas.md — never re-propose an exhausted line.
2. Propose one hypothesis: the smallest change most likely to move the primary metric. Pull from .auto/ideas.md; append newly-imagined ideas there.
3. Apply it directly to the in-scope files (a discard reverts code via git; .auto/ is preserved).
4. arl run — runs the trial harness, parses METRIC lines, runs guardrail checks.sh.
5. Decide with the charter's accept/reject strategy. For fast-low-noise domains, watch the MAD confidence score (<1.0× = within noise, re-run before trusting). For delayed-expensive domains (ads), do NOT trust a single trial — reach the adapter's minimum sample and use significance/bandit logic. A primary win that regresses any guardrail is a discard.
6. arl log --status keep|discard|... --metric <value> --desc "..." --asi <learning>. Keep auto-commits and advances the baseline; discard auto-reverts the code. Record cost with --cost.
7. Annotate every run's --asi with what was learned (survives a discard's revert); prune exhausted ideas.

Respect concurrency reality: deterministic domains can run many fast sequential trials; noisy/delayed domains (ads) run few long concurrent trials and must reach a minimum sample before any verdict.

Phase 3 — ADAPT (every N trials)

• Prune dead-end hypothesis families.
• Re-tune the trial budget (raise if trials are cheap and informative; lower if wasteful).
• Goodhart check: inspect recent keeps — is the metric genuinely better, or gamed (tests deleted, benchmark special-cased, holdout diverging from training metric, downstream conversion dropping while CTR rises)? If gamed, tighten guardrails or refine the metric, and revert the gamed keep.
• Proxy-degeneracy check: if a cheap proxy metric can be structurally degenerate for some task shapes (e.g. a routing score that is always 0 when landing == target), it will under-measure or mislead — and it can "pass" real defects a behavioral check would catch. When a cheap and a behavioral oracle both exist, iterate on the cheap one but decide keeps with the behavioral oracle. Validated on a real run where the content score read a genuine fix as +2.15 while the browser-flow oracle measured +28.68 and also caught three broken links the content score missed. See adapters/web-onboarding.md.

Output

At any stop, report (arl status summarizes most of it): metric baseline → current with the delta and confidence, the kept improvements (each with its delta and cost), what was tried and discarded with the --asi reasons from .auto/log.jsonl, the remaining promising ideas, and total cost. The durable record is .auto/ plus the git history of kept commits.

Reference files

• DESIGN.md — architecture, per-domain design tensions, and the pi-autoresearch prior-art decision (read once per run).
• references/metric-discovery.md — the Phase 0 procedure: deriving + scoring + red-teaming the metric.
• references/runtime-contract.md — the .auto/ layout, METRIC contract, MAD confidence, and arl commands.
• references/domain-adapter-contract.md — how to define a new domain adapter.
• references/journal-schema.md — the ledger record formats.
• adapters/*.md — concrete domain adapters (code-perf-audit, bug-finding, code-generation, google-ads, web-onboarding).