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Router skill for LLMQuant prediction-market workflows.
Passed 10 of 25 test cases with the skill, and 5 of 25 without it.
and 4 more in the full report
5 fixed5 passed either way15 still failing0 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 5 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
Please compare the prediction market odds on whether Brent crude will cross $90 by year-end against the options-implied probabilities derived from the oil options market. Provide a summary highlighting volatility skew differences, timestamped market odds, and any missing data inputs.
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| Identifies missing data inputs required to compare options-implied probabilities. | Passed | Passed |
| Highlights transaction fees as a necessary comparison parameter. | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
This category routes event-probability workflows for prediction markets, options-implied probabilities, and tradable event risk.
| User intent | Workflow |
|---|---|
| Produce an event probability research brief from market odds and evidence. | workflows/event-probability-brief.md |
| Check prediction-market cross-venue or contract-level arbitrage conditions. | workflows/prediction-market-arb-watch.md |
| Compare prediction-market odds with options-implied or asset-implied event pricing. | workflows/probability-vs-options-pricing.md |
Prefer LLMQuant Data when available. The workflows may need these data capabilities:
Fallback:
test cases passed, vs 5 / 25 without
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