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Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM) · phuryn | DecimalAI

phuryn/market-sizing

NewSkillScoreMaintained

Estimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry.

researchby phuryn

Links this skill to your agents and keeps it current with the author’s updates.

Automatic

Product Management pack

1 · One-time — install the CLI (docs ↗)

pip install decimalai

2 · Get the skill — writes .claude/skills/phuryn-market-sizing/SKILL.md

decimalai skills pull phuryn-market-sizing --out .claude/skills/

No CLI? Get the same file — curl · raw file

curl -fsSL --create-dirs -o .claude/skills/phuryn-market-sizing/SKILL.md https://app.decimal.ai/s/phuryn-market-sizing/SKILL.md

Raw file: /s/phuryn-market-sizing/SKILL.md ↗ · machine-readable summary at /s/phuryn-market-sizing.json ↗

In productionGlobal

how this skill behaves on real traffic · last 30 days

No production data for this skill yet — usage numbers appear here once agents start running it.

Anonymized aggregate across every org using this skill — proof from real production use, not a demo.

Does this skill help? · Benchmark: with vs. withoutsign in to run this on your agents

22 test cases from the publisher’s eval.yaml · each run twice on gemini-3.6-flash — with the skill injected, then without · last run 54d ago

—+28% tokens0% turns59% of whole cases pass with skill (13/22)

Test case	Without → With	Effect	Δ tokens	Δ turns
case-06	✗→✓	▲ Improved	25%	0%
case-04	✗→✓	▲ Improved	19%	0%
case-05	✗→✓	▲ Improved	49%	0%
case-11	✗→✓	▲ Improved	17%	0%
case-15	✗→✓	▲ Improved	74%	0%

Showing 5 of 22 cases

SkillSafety

✓ 3 of 3 passed

Code scan15 of 15 checks clean

0 critical · 0 warning · 0 info — scanner v4 — 8/3/2026

live_secretremote_code_executionreverse_shelldata_exfiltrationssrf_metadataagent_snoopinganti_refusaldestructive_commandsobfuscated_unicodeunicode_homoglyphopaque_blobsuspicious_urltool_overreachtrigger_abuseprompt_injection_phrasing

IntentSafe

LLM judge · does the skill do what it claims

ContentClean

LLM judge · policy & harmful-content review

Source

Imported

phuryn / pm-skills

pm-market-research/skills/market-sizing/SKILL.md

View on GitHub ↗

License MITImported 8/3/2026Version v1

Skill contents

SKILL.md

Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)

Purpose

Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.

Instructions

You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.

Input

Your task is to estimate the market size for $ARGUMENTS within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).

If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.

Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)

Market Definition: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
Top-Down Estimation: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
Bottom-Up Estimation: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
SAM Scoping: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
SOM Estimation: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
Growth Projection: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
Assumption Mapping: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate

Output Structure

Market Definition

Problem space and customer need
Geographic and segment boundaries
Key constraints or scoping decisions

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
Reconciliation of the two approaches
Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve
Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier
SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years
Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction
SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning

Market Summary Table

| Metric | Current Estimate | 2-3 Year Projection | |--------|-----------------|---------------------| | TAM | | | | SAM | | | | SOM | | |

Growth Drivers & Trends

Key factors that could expand or contract the market
Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts
Emerging segments or adjacent markets

Key Assumptions & Risks

Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)
Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)
How to validate the most uncertain assumptions
What would materially change the estimates

Best Practices

Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate
Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks
Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers
Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data
Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing
Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets
Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals
Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates

Case	Status	Duration (ms)			Turns			Tokens			Tool calls
Case	Status	Without	With	Δ	Without	With	Δ	Without	With	Δ	Without	With	Δ
case-06 Generate a market opportunity analysis for an identity governance SaaS tool aimed at mid-market healthcare providers in the US. The board wants to see market potential and realistic near-term targets over the next 1 to 3 years.	fail→pass	29,295	29,247	-0%	1	1	0%	3,883	4,855	+25%	0	0	—
case-01 I need a complete opportunity assessment and revenue sizing analysis for launching an automated AI medical billing compliance platform targeted at independent dental clinics in North America. Please define the market scope, calculate the total addressable market using both top-down industry figures and bottom-up unit economics, and reconcile both numbers. Then establish the serviceable addressable market and realistic 1-3 year obtainable market with percentages and rationale. Include a summary comparison matrix projecting metrics over the next few years, highlight key growth catalysts, and outline the critical underlying assumptions along with their risk confidence ratings.	pass→pass	33,531	63,579	+90%	1	1	0%	6,242	5,443	-13%	0	0	—
case-02 We are preparing an investor pitch for a SaaS platform that manages electric vehicle fleet charging for logistics companies across Western Europe. Could you run a full market sizing model for this business? Break down the market boundaries, perform top-down and bottom-up TAM evaluations to reconcile the baseline figure, and narrow down our SAM and SOM based on operational constraints and competitive positioning over a 3-year horizon. Please structure the findings with a summary table contrasting current and future projections, detail major market drivers, and present a structured list of key assumptions paired with confidence ratings and validation methods.	pass→pass	31,812	75,627	+138%	1	1	0%	5,667	6,720	+19%	0	0	—
case-03 I'm evaluating a D2C AI-driven personalized meal planning app subscription entering the Japanese health and wellness sector. Please generate a detailed market sizing report. Specify the problem boundaries and customer focus, derive both top-down macro estimates and bottom-up revenue calculations, and address how they reconcile. Show the total addressable opportunity, serviceable market, and achievable share within 1 to 3 years. Format the core metrics into a summary table comparing current vs multi-year forecasts, detail market expansion drivers, and document all pivotal assumptions with assigned confidence levels and testing steps.	pass→pass	40,963	85,136	+108%	1	1	0%	6,094	6,982	+15%	0	0	—
case-04 We are building a B2C video veterinary consultation app for pet owners in urban centers across Germany. The team wants a full revenue sizing breakdown. A team member suggested only doing a quick top-down estimate based on global pet care industry reports to save time, but investors requested a thorough evaluation. Please construct the analysis, balancing macro reports with bottom-up user/pricing calculations.	fail→pass	26,513	25,472	-4%	1	1	0%	4,515	5,356	+19%	0	0	—
case-05 Evaluate the market opportunity for an autonomous drone spraying subscription for vineyard farmers in Northern California. When presenting SAM, our sales VP wants to just call SAM 50% of TAM without further breakdown. Provide a complete market sizing report with full scoping rationale.	fail→pass	19,111	28,254	+48%	1	1	0%	3,827	5,710	+49%	0	0	—
case-07 Conduct a market size calculation for a cloud-based warehouse management platform targeting SME logistics operators in Southeast Asia. Ensure the metrics summary table adheres to standard financial reporting conventions for investors.	fail→fail	26,851	54,784	+104%	1	1	0%	3,660	5,448	+49%	0	0	—
case-08 Provide a market opportunity sizing report for a B2B legal document summarization tool for corporate legal departments in the UK. Make sure all assumptions are clearly outlined for our risk audit committee.	pass→pass	25,590	119,292	+366%	1	1	0%	4,972	5,830	+17%	0	0	—
case-09 We need a complete TAM, SAM, and SOM analysis for an enterprise carbon accounting platform serving manufacturing firms in the EU. Be sure to address external industry shifts.	pass→fail	22,227	34,214	+54%	1	1	0%	3,983	1,373	-66%	0	0	—
case-10 Perform a market sizing study for a B2B customer churn prediction tool for Shopify e-commerce merchants worldwide. The founder wants to know how to test our assumptions.	pass→fail	21,813	34,232	+57%	1	1	0%	3,884	5,893	+52%	0	0	—
case-16 Generate a TAM SAM SOM assessment for an IoT predictive maintenance solution for industrial HVAC systems in North America. The product manager asks to state TAM and SAM purely as the number of installed physical sensors rather than financial value. Perform the market sizing.	fail→fail	15,592	49,045	+215%	1	1	0%	2,941	5,364	+82%	0	0	—
case-11 Run a financial TAM/SAM/SOM breakdown for a micro-mobility e-bike fleet management system in Latin America. The team lead suggested skipping the assumption risk breakdown to save time. Provide a complete market sizing report.	fail→pass	16,370	15,583	-5%	1	1	0%	2,986	3,503	+17%	0	0	—
case-12 Produce a detailed market opportunity analysis for a B2B AI code review plugin targeting enterprise financial services firms in North America. A stakeholder suggests setting TAM to equal the entire global software engineering market without filtering by customer segment or geography. Construct the market sizing model.	pass→pass	32,233	23,238	-28%	1	1	0%	5,283	5,288	+0%	0	0	—
case-13 Calculate the market size for an online tutoring marketplace connecting native Spanish speakers with university students in the US. A colleague claims top-down estimates are sufficient, but we need unit-based validation.	pass→fail	18,598	114,832	+517%	1	1	0%	3,365	1,460	-57%	0	0	—
case-14 Prepare a market sizing analysis for an automated HR onboarding platform tailored for remote-first startups in North America. Focus on establishing credible market bounds.	fail→fail	20,170	30,711	+52%	1	1	0%	3,491	1,176	-66%	0	0	—
case-15 Assess the market opportunity for a cold-chain sensor monitoring service for pharmaceutical distributors in Europe over the next several years.	fail→pass	21,248	124,598	+486%	1	1	0%	3,476	6,058	+74%	0	0	—
case-17 We are sizing the market for a HIPAA-compliant voice AI receptionist for private mental health practices in the US. Analyze our serviceable limits.	pass→fail	15,780	55,975	+255%	1	1	0%	3,239	5,583	+72%	0	0	—
case-18 Evaluate the market share potential for a devops CI/CD pipeline optimization tool targeting Series A-C tech startups in North America.	fail→fail	19,129	27,865	+46%	1	1	0%	3,294	1,236	-62%	0	0	—
case-19 Perform market sizing for a subscription box management software for boutique D2C brands in the US. Our top-down analyst report says the market is $3 billion, while our bottom-up model says $500 million. An advisor recommends deleting the bottom-up figure from the pitch deck. Reconcile both approaches in the report.	pass→pass	16,161	23,078	+43%	1	1	0%	2,815	5,487	+95%	0	0	—
case-20 We are launching a cloud developer observability tool and need to structure our pricing tiers (e.g. Free, Pro, Enterprise) and decide feature gating. Provide a recommended pricing model and tier breakdown.	pass→fail	22,975	55,492	+142%	1	1	0%	3,099	1,614	-48%	0	0	—
case-21 Design an interview guide with 10 questions to ask procurement managers at manufacturing companies to uncover pain points in raw material ordering.	pass→pass	12,611	17,474	+39%	1	1	0%	2,362	3,891	+65%	0	0	—
case-22 Draft a Product Requirement Document (PRD) for adding dark mode and multi-language support to an existing mobile banking application.	pass→pass	23,783	30,577	+29%	1	1	0%	4,190	5,125	+22%	0	0	—

These cases were also screened by the skill’s intent / safety pass.See the Trust review ↗Reproduce this benchmark in Colab ↗

How this skill was measured

DecimalAI ran this skill against gemini-3.6-flash twice over the same eval suite — once with the skill loaded and once without — and compared the two runs case by case. 22 cases were attempted, and 14 counted toward the lift figure. The other 8 produced results that are not comparable between the two arms, so they are excluded from the headline rather than averaged into it. The headline lift of 0 percentage points is the difference between those two pass rates over the 14 comparable cases. 6 cases got worse with the skill loaded, and they are included in that figure.

Model measured: gemini-3.6-flash
Graded by: gemini-3.6-flash
Grading method: judged
Verification: verified
Pass rate without the skill: 59.1%
Pass rate with the skill: 59.1%
Cases attempted: 22
Cases counted toward lift: 14
Cases that regressed: 6
Skill version measured: v1
Run completed: 8/4/2026, 20:59 UTC

Measured example — same prompt, with vs. without the skill · from the benchmark run · case case-06

Prompt

Generate a market opportunity analysis for an identity governance SaaS tool aimed at mid-market healthcare providers in the US. The board wants to see market potential and realistic near-term targets over the next 1 to 3 years.

Without the skill loaded, the model failed this case. With it loaded, the same prompt on the same model passed. This is one improved case from the latest verified run; every case, including any that regressed, is in the table above.

Show both answers

SkillScore blends 4 signalsno signals yet

BenchmarkRun a verified benchmark with positive lift

Live evalNeeds ≥10 evaluated traces in 30 days

AI ratingNeeds ≥10 rated traces

AdoptionNeeds ≥10 serves across ≥2 orgs in 30 days

Efficiency · separate axis (at equal correctness)+0% turns+19% tokens

Shown for transparency; not credited unless a verified run shows no correctness regression.

No signals yet — run a benchmark or collect evaluated traces to earn a score.

Verified on gemini-3.6-flash · re-tested 54 days ago

Other measured skills in the registry, with their headline benchmark lift.