Day 2 end capstone move of a Foundation Sprint. Compresses the sprint's full strategic frame into a single canonical sentence (the Founding Hypothesis) plus an assumption scorecard, why-we-believe, what-could-prove-us-wrong, and recommended next validation step. Use after Magic Lenses is signed. Strict canonical template; paraphrase is not accepted in v0.1.0. The Founding Hypothesis is the spine artifact the sprint exists to produce.
SkillScore79Maintained
Automatic
◆Product Management pack
Last verified 8/18/2026
What it changes
Passed 19 of 24 test cases with the skill, and 4 of 24 without it.
Without skill17%
With skill79%
Checks it passed that the model alone missed
Allocates 10 to 15 minutes for Step 1.
Allocates 45 minutes total for the full sequence.
States that ratification must occur by the end of Day 2.
and 17 more in the full report
15 fixed4 passed either way5 still failing0 broke
Pass-rate lift
+63 pp
Tokens
+86%
Agent turns
0%
Response time
-34%
Model gemini-3.6-flashMeasured 8/18/2026v119 of 24 cases passed with skill
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
See it in action
One of 15 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
1 of 15
Prompt
How much total time is allocated for the Founding Hypothesis sequence on Day 2, and how much time should be spent drafting the hypothesis sentence in Step 1?
What was checked, without and with the skill
Checked
Without skill
With skill
Allocates 45 minutes total for the full sequence.
Missed
Passed
Allocates 10 to 15 minutes for Step 1.
Missed
Passed
case-16 · gemini-3.6-flash · 8/18/2026 · answers are capped and redacted
What's inside
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
SKILL.md140 lines3 files
Foundation Sprint Founding Hypothesis
Day 2 end of a Foundation Sprint. The team compresses the full sprint output into a single canonical sentence plus a testable scorecard. This is the artifact the sprint exists to produce; everything before this skill was preparation. Without a ratifiable Founding Hypothesis, the sprint failed.
Family contract: docs/reference/skill-families/foundation-sprint-skills-contract.md. This skill is a member of foundation-sprint-skills.
When to Use
Day 2 end of a Foundation Sprint.
Magic Lenses is signed; top bet and backup are named.
The team has 30-45 minutes left in Day 2 and the energy to write the sentence carefully.
When NOT to Use
Magic Lenses did not produce a clear top bet. Return to Magic Lenses; the Founding Hypothesis cannot stabilize on an unstable top bet.
The team wants to "polish the hypothesis later." The hypothesis must be ratified by end of Day 2 or the sprint output is incomplete. Polishing later means re-litigating; that defeats the sprint's purpose.
The team wants to ratify a vague hypothesis to "ship the sprint." A vague hypothesis is worse than no hypothesis; it gives false confidence and burns trust when validation fails.
What This Skill Produces
A single bundled artifact with five sections:
Founding Hypothesis statement: the single canonical sentence (strict template, no paraphrase).
Assumption scorecard: 5-7 assumptions extracted from the hypothesis, each scored on current confidence and tagged with a best next test (3-10 accepted; recommended range is 5-7).
Why we believe this: 3-5 bulleted points naming the evidence base.
What could prove us wrong: 3-5 bulleted points naming the risks. This section is the test of whether the team is in love with the hypothesis or holding it with calibrated confidence.
Recommended next validation step: Design Sprint, customer research, experiment, landing page test, or other. Names the specific test, owner, and timeline.
See references/TEMPLATE.md for the canonical template and references/EXAMPLE.md for the Brainshelf example.
The Canonical Template (Strict)
If we help [target customer] solve [important problem]
with [approach], they will choose it over [competitors or alternatives]
because our solution is [differentiators].
Structured group-decision mechanic that captures silent ideation, voting summaries, and Decider sign-off in a single bundled artifact. Use when a small team needs to make a fast decision with diverse input, when groupthink is a risk, or when a workshop moment demands silent contribution before discussion. Applicable to Foundation Sprint, Design Sprint, and any participatory decision context.