When a change has effects past the immediate fix—incentives, scale, feedback—trace consequence chains with timing and probability before committing.
SkillScore91Maintained
On-demandOn-demand: invoked explicitly — never occupies your agent's context until called.
◆Product Management pack
Last verified 8/14/2026
What it changes
Passed 20 of 22 test cases with the skill, and 7 of 22 without it.
Without skill32%
With skill91%
Checks it passed that the model alone missed
Assigns a probability rating to each identified downstream effect.
Labels secondary and tertiary effects with explicit timing windows.
Includes a dedicated analysis section for universal scaling outcomes.
and 16 more in the full report
13 fixed7 passed either way2 still failing0 broke
Pass-rate lift
+59 pp
Tokens
-8%
Agent turns
0%
Response time
-34%
Model gemini-3.6-flashMeasured 8/14/2026v120 of 22 cases passed with skill
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
See it in action
One of 13 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
1 of 13
Prompt
Our enterprise sales team proposes paying 100% of sales commissions immediately upon contract signature rather than upon customer invoice collection. Evaluate the downstream consequences.
What was checked, without and with the skill
Checked
Without skill
With skill
Explicitly categorizes each consequence link as a reinforcing loop or a balancing loop.
Missed
Passed
case-13 · gemini-3.6-flash · 8/14/2026 · answers are capped and redacted
What's inside
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
SKILL.md52 linessingle file
Second-Order Consequence Chains
Do not stop at the intended first effect. Trace what happens next across actors, time, and feedback until the chain stops changing the decision.
When to Use
Strategic, policy, incentive, or architecture choices with lasting coupling.
The obvious fix feels too easy or has known backfire patterns.
Success or scale would create new problems (load, gaming, debt).
Need to compare options by delayed effects, not only day-one benefit.
When NOT to Use
Local reversible edit with no incentive or cross-component coupling—just ship and observe.
Full system structure (stocks, many loops, leverage ranking) is the goal—use systems.
Pre-mortem of failure modes for a plan already chosen—use pre-mortem.
Pure mechanical changes (rename, format) with no behavioral effect.
Procedure
State decision and first-order effect. One sentence each: action and intended immediate result.
Chain "and then what?" At least two further orders. For each link record: effect, who responds, rough probability (high/med/low), timing (immediate / next cycle / at scale), and whether it feeds back into the original problem (reinforce or counteract).
Expand affected parties. Who else reacts (users, operators, other teams, attackers, markets)? What incentives does the change create or destroy?
Scale test. Ask what happens if everyone does this or usage grows 10x. Mark paths that only appear under scale or repetition.
Prune and decide. Drop speculative links that do not change the choice. Keep only effects that alter go/no-go, design, or mitigations. Revise the action or add guards where second-order harm exceeds first-order gain.
Stop when further "and then what?" no longer changes the decision, or the remaining chain is pure speculation without mechanism.
When throughput or latency is pipeline-limited, identify the single binding constraint and exploit, subordinate, elevate, then recheck—ignore non-constraints.