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Causal Modeling · yogsoth-ai | DecimalAI

researchby yogsoth-ai

Causal Modeling

yogsoth-ai/causal-modeling

Source yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine ↗License Apache-2.0

Campaign for building causal models — identify variables, map mechanisms, collect evidence, analyze interventions, validate models. Produces causal graphs in the wiki vault.

SkillScore73Maintained

Automatic

Research pack

Last verified 8/22/2026

What it changes

Passed 15 of 20 test cases with the skill, and 9 of 20 without it.

Without skill45%

With skill73%

Checks it passed that the model alone missed

Targets approximately 8 variables for small budget scope
Targets approximately 40 variables for large budget scope
Targets approximately 15 causal edges for small budget scope

and 9 more in the full report

8 fixed8 passed either way4 still failing2 broke

Pass-rate lift: +27 pp
Tokens: +36%
Agent turns: 0%
Response time: -3%

Model gemini-3.6-flashMeasured 8/22/2026v216 of 22 cases passed with skill · 20 comparable

Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.

Use this skill

Save it into your project's skills folder. Claude Code picks it up in its next session.

curl -fsSL --create-dirs -o .claude/skills/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling/SKILL.md https://app.decimal.ai/s/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling/SKILL.md

Want it pinned and updatable? pip install "decimalai>=0.15", then decimalai skills add yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling, and start Claude Code with claude --plugin-dir "$(git rev-parse --show-toplevel)/.agents"

1 · One-time — install the CLI (docs ↗)

pip install "decimalai>=0.15"

2 · Get the skill — writes .agents/skills/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling/ and pins it in .decimal/skills.lock

decimalai skills add yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling

No CLI? Get the same file — curl · raw file

curl -fsSL --create-dirs -o .claude/skills/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling/SKILL.md https://app.decimal.ai/s/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling/SKILL.md

Raw file: /s/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling/SKILL.md ↗ · machine-readable summary at /s/yogsoth-ai-causal-modeling.json ↗

Safety checks: 3 of 3 passed

Code scan CleanIntent PassedContent Clean

See it in action

One of 8 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.

1 of 8

Prompt

When compiling research findings into vault pages during an active campaign phase, what minimum operation threshold should be met per invocation?

What was checked, without and with the skill
Checked	Without skill	With skill
Requires a minimum yield of 3 page operations per knowledge compilation call	Missed	Passed

case-22 · gemini-3.6-flash · 8/22/2026 · answers are capped and redacted

What's inside

The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.

SKILL.md89 linessingle file

Causal Modeling

Build causal models for research domains. Identifies variables, maps causal mechanisms, collects supporting evidence, analyzes potential interventions, and validates the resulting causal graph.

Manifest

Level	Count	Skills
Strategy	5	variable-identification, mechanism-mapping, evidence-collection, intervention-analysis, model-validation
Tactic	3	counterfactual-reasoning, evidence-weighing, feedback-loop-detection
SOP	10	variable-page-creation, mechanism-edge-creation, evidence-linking, contradiction-flagging, confidence-scoring, intervention-page-creation, loop-documentation, model-gap-detection, causal-chain-query, validation-report

Budget Table

Metric	Small	Medium	Large
Variables identified	8	20	40
Causal edges created	15	40	80
Evidence pages linked	10	30	60
Interventions analyzed	2	5	10
Feedback loops documented	1	3	6

Strategy Sequence (Reference, Not Prescription)

variable-identification — identify key variables in the causal system
mechanism-mapping — map causal mechanisms between variables
evidence-collection — gather evidence supporting/refuting causal claims
intervention-analysis — analyze what happens when variables are manipulated
model-validation — validate the causal model for consistency and completeness

MCP Tools Used

vault_search — find existing variables and mechanisms
vault_add_edge — create causal edges (derived_from, supported_by, contradicts)
vault_query_graph — trace causal chains
vault_graph_stats — assess model coverage
vault_lint — validate structural integrity

Context-Management

Track record

Benchmark

15 / 20

test cases passed, vs 9 / 20 without

Adoption

Users: 0
Times used: 0

Safety and source details

SkillSafety

✓ 3 of 3 passed

Code scan15 of 15 checks clean

0 critical · 0 warning · 0 info — scanner v4 — 8/10/2026

View 15 scanner checks

live_secretremote_code_executionreverse_shelldata_exfiltrationssrf_metadataagent_snoopinganti_refusaldestructive_commandsobfuscated_unicodeunicode_homoglyphopaque_blobsuspicious_urltool_overreachtrigger_abuseprompt_injection_phrasing

IntentSafe

LLM judge · does the skill do what it claims

ContentClean

LLM judge · policy & harmful-content review

Source

Imported

yogsoth-ai / de-anthropocentric-research-engine

skills/causal-modeling/SKILL.md

View on GitHub ↗

License Apache-2.0Imported 8/10/2026Version v2

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Published skills whose descriptions closely match this one, with their headline benchmark lift.

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See it in action

What's inside

Causal Modeling

Manifest

Budget Table

Strategy Sequence (Reference, Not Prescription)

MCP Tools Used

Context-Management

Track record

Benchmark

Adoption

SkillSafety

Source

Other skills for the same job

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