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Strategy: Lewis Possible Worlds — find the minimal change to reality that would flip the conclusion, measuring how close the nearest world where the conclusion fails.
Passed 12 of 20 test cases with the skill, and 5 of 20 without it.
and 5 more in the full report
8 fixed5 passed either way9 still failing0 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 7 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
Before generating change candidates during the orchestration of the Zenith Cloud Billing Strategy counterfactual analysis, what two initial steps must be completed in order?
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| Perform causal-claim-extraction followed by factor-enumeration. | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
Lewis semantics: evaluate counterfactuals by finding the nearest possible world where the antecedent holds and checking whether the consequent follows.
| Parameter | S | M | L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change candidates explored | 5 | 12 | 25 |
| Flip-point searches | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| World-distance comparisons | 3 | 6 | 12 |
causal-claim-extraction → factor-enumeration
→ [generate change candidates]:
flip-point-detection (binary search for minimal flip)
→ counterfactual-scenario-construction (build nearest world)
→ fragility-measurement (compute distance)
→ load-bearing-identification (rank by proximity)
test cases passed, vs 5 / 20 without
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