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Strategy: refine a working hypothesis into a precise, testable form
Passed 20 of 23 test cases with the skill, and 14 of 23 without it.
and 5 more in the full report
6 fixed14 passed either way3 still failing0 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 6 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
We need a quick, minimal operationalization (Tier S) for our pilot proposal: 'Push notifications increase daily app opens among workout app users.' We don't need extensive comparative schemes or deep validity audits right now.
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| The response provides draft measurement methods for the identified variables. | Passed | Passed |
| The response includes at least one falsification scenario. | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
Refine a working hypothesis into a testable form: transform a vague directional idea or conceptual hypothesis into a precise, testable proposition in which every term has an operational definition and every variable has a measurement method.
Not applicable: there is not yet any hypothesis direction → first use one of the other three strategies to generate a hypothesis, then return to this strategy to refine it.
Abstract → Concrete
Every term gets an operational definition, every variable gets a measurement method.
The five levels of operationalization:
Common operationalization failure modes:
| Tier | Operationalization completeness | Variable measurement | Boundary conditions | Falsifiability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | All abstract terms have operational definitions | All variables have draft measurement methods | Main boundary conditions specified | 1 falsification scenario |
| M | Above + justification of operationalization validity | Variable measurement includes reliability/validity considerations | Complete boundary conditions | ≥2 falsification scenarios |
| L | Above + comparison of competing operationalization schemes | Main variables include multiple operationalization schemes | Boundary conditions + external-validity statement | Complete falsifiability audit |
test cases passed, vs 14 / 23 without
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