Campaign: Scenario Planning

HARD-GATE

Before launching this campaign, verify:

1. Research direction defined — A clear research approach or hypothesis exists to stress-test
2. Uncertainty acknowledged — The team recognizes key unknowns that could invalidate the approach
3. Time horizon specified — Short (6mo), medium (2yr), or long (5yr+) planning window declared
4. Stakeholder buy-in — Decision-makers agree that scenario analysis will inform strategy

If any gate fails, STOP and resolve before proceeding.

Campaign Goal

Construct a portfolio of plausible future scenarios spanning the uncertainty space, then assess how robust our research approach is under each scenario. The output is a robustness index plus contingency triggers that tell us when to pivot.

Strategy Selection

| Strategy | Question | When to Use | |----------|----------|-------------| | morphological-scenario | What are all possible combinations? | Systematic enumeration of all factor combinations needed | | narrative-scenario | What is the story of each future? | Rich qualitative understanding of scenario dynamics needed | | stress-scenario | What is the worst case? | Risk assessment and failure preparedness needed | | competitive-scenario | What will competitors do? | Competitive landscape awareness needed | | temporal-scenario | How does it evolve over time? | Technology evolution and timing decisions needed |

Budget Gate

| Component | Token Budget | Subagent Calls | |-----------|-------------|----------------| | Driver identification | 8K | 1 | | Parameter enumeration | 10K | 1 | | Consistency filtering | 15K | 2 | | Narrative construction | 12K per scenario | 1 per scenario | | Impact assessment | 10K per scenario | 1 per scenario | | Robustness scoring | 8K | 1 | | Synthesis | 12K | 1 | | Total (5 scenarios) | ~130K | ~15 |

Context Management

• Each SOP runs as a subagent with isolated context
• Strategy-level orchestrator maintains scenario registry
• Pass scenario IDs (not full content) between steps
• Final synthesis receives summaries, not raw outputs

Minimum Yield

A successful campaign produces at minimum:

• 3+ internally consistent scenarios spanning the uncertainty space
• Robustness score for the research approach (0-100)
• At least 1 identified pivot trigger with threshold condition
• Contingency action for each scenario where robustness < 50

Context Recording

研究过程经 context-management 落盘，与最终报告分属不同文件：

1. 进入本 campaign 时：import context-init，topic-slug 传 scenario-planning，

建立本 campaign 的过程 context 文件。init 幂等——同 Phase 重入返回原文件。

1. 每个 strategy 完成后：import context-checkpoint（硬约束，不可跳过），把该

strategy 的过程与中间产出 append 进上一步的过程文件。

1. 最终报告不写进这个过程文件——由本 campaign 的 synthesis SOP（scenario-synthesis）

另起 scenario-planning-report 文件落盘（见该 SOP）。

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Available Strategies

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Strategy | When to use | | --- | --- | | competitive-scenario | What will competitors do? — Competitive method progress prediction and time window analysis | | morphological-scenario | What are all possible combinations? — Zwicky Box construction with CCA consistency filtering for systematic scenario enumeration | | narrative-scenario | What is the story of each future? — Shell method narrative construction for rich qualitative scenario understanding | | stress-scenario | What is the worst case? — Extreme condition construction and failure mode enumeration for risk preparedness | | temporal-scenario | How does it evolve over time? — Short/medium/long-term timeline projection with technology maturity curves |

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use | | --- | --- | | context-checkpoint | Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Covers both process and results with genuine substance. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase. | | context-init | Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed. | | experiment-execution-paper-overview | Import SOP: paper landscape scan (from literature-engine skill) | | experiment-execution-paper-research | Import SOP: paper full-text reading (from literature-engine skill) | | experiment-execution-paper-search | Import SOP: paper AI summary reading (from literature-engine skill) | | experiment-execution-quality-gate-check | Shared SOP: verify quality gate criteria are met before proceeding | | experiment-execution-saturation-detection | Shared SOP: detect information saturation — know when to stop searching/analyzing | | experiment-execution-web-research | Import SOP: deep full-page content analysis (from web-browsing skill) | | experiment-execution-web-search | Import SOP: quick web scan discovery (from web-browsing skill) | | scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work |

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