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Use historical analogies to inform strategic decisions by identifying structural similarities and differences between past and present situations.
Passed 17 of 22 test cases with the skill, and 13 of 22 without it.
and 5 more in the full report
5 fixed12 passed either way4 still failing1 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 5 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
Our leadership team is considering whether the current generative AI enterprise adoption wave is analogous to the enterprise transition to cloud computing in the late 2000s. Please run a structured comparison assessment for us. State the core premise clearly, analyze the underlying structural similarities and operational differences using comparison tables, assess the overall validity and boundaries of the analogy, and highlight key takeaways along with their caveats.
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| includes a table column evaluating similarity strength using strong, moderate, or weak ratings | Missed | Passed |
| includes a table column evaluating difference impact using weakens, neutral, or strengthens ratings | Missed | Passed |
| pairs each listed lesson with an explicit caveat stating where the lesson does not apply | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
Historical analogies apply lessons from past events to current decisions. When used rigorously, they provide pattern recognition and foresight. When used carelessly, they mislead by overfitting superficial similarities and ignoring structural differences.
IRON LAW: Structural Similarity, Not Surface Similarity
A valid analogy requires shared STRUCTURAL features (causal mechanisms,
power dynamics, systemic patterns), not just surface resemblance.
"This startup is the next Apple" because the founder wears turtlenecks =
surface similarity (worthless). "This market has the same demand-side
network effects as early smartphone adoption" = structural similarity (useful).
| Trap | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Cherry-picking | Selecting only the historical case that supports your conclusion | "Kodak failed to adapt, so we must pivot" (ignoring cases where staying the course was right) |
| Outcome bias | Using the historical outcome to validate the analogy | "Amazon survived the dotcom bust, so we will too" (survivorship bias) |
| False precision | Expecting history to repeat exactly | "The 2008 crisis took 18 months to recover, so this one will too" |
| Presentism | Judging past decisions by present knowledge | "They should have seen the crisis coming" (they didn't have today's data) |
test cases passed, vs 13 / 22 without
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