aeon-unlock-monitor

Empirically (Keyrock's 16k+ unlock analysis), ratios > 2.4× strain liquidity and produce measurable drawdown; < 0.5× the market yawns. The skill ranks by ratio first, supply % second, and adds pre-unlock price action to produce a per-event verdict.

Tiers

ratio = unlock_usd_value / 7d_avg_daily_volume

CRISIS     > 2.4×    liquidity cannot absorb without slippage
STRAIN     1.0-2.4×  multiple sessions to digest
DIGESTIBLE 0.3-1.0×  notable but absorbable
TRIVIAL    < 0.3×    background noise

Recipient override: team/investor (cost-basis-zero sellers) bump up one tier; community/staking-rewards bump down. Court-ordered distributions (FTX, Mt. Gox, Celsius) bypass the tier system — always included, labeled forced.

Market read

| Read | Condition | |---|---| | priced in | Token down > 20% over 30d AND tier ≤ STRAIN. Selling has happened. | | market asleep | Flat or up over 30d AND tier ≥ STRAIN. Asymmetric downside. | | fade pump | Up > 15% over 30d AND tier = CRISIS. Pre-cliff bid-and-dump. | | forced sellers | Court-ordered. Legal timeline, not market-driven. | | absorbable | TRIVIAL/DIGESTIBLE with no recipient flag. |

Sources

Tokenomist (primary), DefiLlama unlocks, CryptoRank, DropsTab, CoinGecko for volume + 30d price. Source status emitted in output — DEGRADED if 2+ fail, ERROR only if all fail.

Output

Headline = most-leveraged unlock with its market read. Then tiered groups: CRISIS → STRAIN → DIGESTIBLE → FORCED. Quiet week ships UNLOCK_MONITOR_QUIET with one sentence — supply being calm is itself a signal.

A local state/unlock-monitor-seen.json holds ${ticker}:${unlock_date} keys on a 90-day window for dedup.

Rules

• Cliff pattern: weakness ~30d prior, vol peak on the date, recovery 10-14 days after. Note explicitly.
• Linear unlocks rarely produce single-day shocks. Say so when one shows up high.
• Be direct. "priced in", "market's asleep", "fade the pump". No hedging.