Don Cheli: Estimation Engine

Instructions

1. Read the feature, story or task description
2. Run all 4 estimation models independently (treat each as a separate agent):

• Function Points: count inputs, outputs, queries, files, interfaces; apply complexity weights
• Planning Poker AI: 3 independent agents guess simultaneously (pessimist, realist, optimist), then reconcile using Delphi method
• COCOMO II: classify project size (Organic / Semi-detached / Embedded), apply effort equation
• Historical: look for comparable past tasks in .dc/hallazgos.md and docs/; extrapolate velocity

1. Compute the consolidated estimate with 90% confidence interval
2. Flag hidden risks that inflate variance

Output Format

## Estimation: <feature name>

| Model            | Estimate   | Unit       | Confidence |
|------------------|------------|------------|------------|
| Function Points  | X          | hours      | medium     |
| Planning Poker   | X–Y        | story pts  | high       |
| COCOMO II        | X          | person-days| medium     |
| Historical       | X          | days       | low/med    |

**Consolidated:** X–Y days (90% CI)
**Key assumptions:** …
**Top 3 risks that increase variance:** …

Quality Gate

• All 4 models must be executed; do not skip any
• If Historical has no comparable baseline, mark as N/A and explain
• If Planning Poker spread > 2x, escalate: ask the user to clarify scope before finalizing

Do not use this skill when

• The task is trivially small (< 1 hour) — just state it directly
• The user is asking for a rough gut-feel order of magnitude; use a one-liner instead