Extract every hidden assumption from a plan or document and put a price on each one — what it costs if wrong, what it costs to test. Use before committing to anything whose author says 'obviously' or whose spreadsheet has hardcoded cells: the bounty hunt makes the invisible load-bearing beliefs explicit and tells you which three to test this week. Produces the assumption ledger (priced and ranked), the cheapest test for each dangerous one, and the document's honest confidence statement.
SkillScore27Maintained
Automatic
◆Product Management pack
Last verified 8/14/2026
What it changes
Passed 6 of 22 test cases with the skill, and 3 of 22 without it.
Without skill14%
With skill27%
Checks it passed that the model alone missed
The ledger specifies where each assumption hides in the document.
The danger score is computed as cost if wrong divided by test cost.
Costs in the ledger are expressed in concrete currency or time units.
and 8 more in the full report
6 fixed0 passed either way13 still failing3 broke
Pass-rate lift
+14 pp
Tokens
+73%
Agent turns
0%
Response time
+39%
Model gemini-3.6-flashMeasured 8/14/2026v16 of 22 cases passed with skill
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
See it in action
One of 6 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
1 of 6
Prompt
We are preparing to present our 3-year SaaS pricing and financial model to the board. Below is our strategic narrative and hardcoded projections. Please audit this material for unstated premises. I need a ranked assumption table showing where each belief hides and its relative danger, concrete test protocols for the top 3 highest-risk items that specify clear pass/kill criteria, a quick-fact upgrade list of items we can confirm today, and an honest one-paragraph statement summarizing what needs to hold true for this plan to succeed.
What was checked, without and with the skill
Checked
Without skill
With skill
The output specifies who can run each test for the top three assumptions.
Missed
Passed
Costs are expressed in concrete financial or timeline units rather than high/medium/low risk ratings.
Passed
Passed
The confidence statement states what conditions must hold, what is tested, what is testable by a date, and what is a chosen bet.
Missed
Passed
case-03 · gemini-3.6-flash · 8/14/2026 · answers are capped and redacted
What's inside
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
SKILL.md40 linessingle file
Assumption Bounty
Every plan is a stack of beliefs wearing a costume of facts. Most die from an assumption nobody wrote down — because unwritten assumptions can't be tested, assigned, or noticed when they quietly become false. The bounty hunt pays by the find: every hidden belief extracted, priced, and ranked by (cost if wrong) ÷ (cost to test).
Required Inputs
The document — plan, model, PRD, forecast, strategy. Spreadsheet-backed documents: include the key hardcoded numbers; each one is an assumption in a trench coat.
Optional: which assumptions the team already knows about — the bounty only pays for hidden ones, and knowing the acknowledged list sharpens the hunt.
Where Assumptions Hide
In verbs: "users will migrate" (will they?), "the team can absorb" (can it?)
In adjectives: "conservative estimate", "simple integration", "standard terms"
In silence: what the document never mentions — pricing pages that assume no competitor response, hiring plans that assume no attrition
In hardcoded numbers: every constant in the model (conversion 3%, CAC $400) is a belief with a confidence interval nobody stated
In the past tense: "as we saw in the pilot" — assuming the pilot generalises
In org charts: "marketing will drive awareness" assumes a team's priorities that were never negotiated
Output Format
The ledger — table, ranked by danger score: assumption (quoted or reconstructed) | where it hides | cost if wrong (order of magnitude, in the plan's own currency: money, weeks, credibility) | cost to test | danger = wrong÷test.
The big three — the top of the ledger, each with its cheapest decisive test: what to do this week, what result confirms vs kills, who can run it. A test that can't kill the assumption isn't a test.
The upgrade list — assumptions that become facts with one email/query ("we assume the contract allows X" → legal can answer today). Free confidence; harvest it.
The honest confidence statement — one paragraph the author could paste into the document: "This plan holds if A, B, and C; A is tested, B is testable by , C is a bet we're choosing to take." Plans with this paragraph survive contact with executives.
Quality Checks
Every ledger entry is traceable to the document (quote or named silence) — no imported generic risks
Costs are in the plan's own units and orders of magnitude, not "high/medium/low" theatre
Each big-three test can actually KILL the assumption — confirmation-only tests are flagged and replaced
At least two upgrade-list items exist, or the hunt states the document was unusually explicit (rare; say it with respect)
The confidence statement names the chosen bets as bets — the honesty is the deliverable
Anti-Patterns
Do not list more than ~12 assumptions — past that, extraction has become transcription; rank and cut
Do not price everything as catastrophic — a ledger where everything kills the plan hides the one that actually will
Do not propose tests that cost more than being wrong — the ratio is the whole game
Do not treat acknowledged assumptions as finds — the bounty is for the hidden ones; padding with the known list is claiming someone else's kill
Do not moralise about assuming — plans require assumptions; the sin is anonymity, not existence