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中国宏观分析 (China Macro Analyst) · nicepkg | DecimalAI

nicepkg/china-macro-analyst

NewSkillScoreMaintained

Analyze China macroeconomic data, PBOC monetary policy, fiscal policy, and their impact on A-share and HK stock markets. Track GDP, CPI, PPI, PMI, social financing, and interpret policy signals. Use when user asks about 中国宏观经济, 央行政策, economic data impact on markets, or needs to understand policy implications for investment.

financeby nicepkg

Links this skill to your agents and keeps it current with the author’s updates.

Automatic

Finance & Accounting pack

1 · One-time — install the CLI (docs ↗)

pip install decimalai

2 · Get the skill — writes .claude/skills/nicepkg-china-macro-analyst/SKILL.md

decimalai skills pull nicepkg-china-macro-analyst --out .claude/skills/

No CLI? Get the same file — curl · raw file

curl -fsSL --create-dirs -o .claude/skills/nicepkg-china-macro-analyst/SKILL.md https://app.decimal.ai/s/nicepkg-china-macro-analyst/SKILL.md

Raw file: /s/nicepkg-china-macro-analyst/SKILL.md ↗ · machine-readable summary at /s/nicepkg-china-macro-analyst.json ↗

In productionGlobal

how this skill behaves on real traffic · last 30 days

Runs

all versions · 30d

Anonymized aggregate across every org using this skill — proof from real production use, not a demo.

Does this skill help? · Benchmark: with vs. withoutsign in to run this on your agents

22 test cases from the publisher’s eval.yaml · each run twice on gemini-3.6-flash — with the skill injected, then without · last run 5d ago

No — -33% lift+110% tokens0% turns77% of whole cases pass with skill (17/22)

Test case	Without → With	Effect	Δ tokens	Δ turns
case-17	✗→✓	▲ Improved	208%	0%
case-20	✓→✗	▼ Worse	70%	0%
case-22	✓→✗	▼ Worse	95%	0%
case-13	✓→✓	＝ Same ✓	96%	0%
case-14	✓→✓	＝ Same ✓	127%	0%

Showing 5 of 22 cases

SkillSafety

✓ 3 of 3 passed

Code scan15 of 15 checks clean

0 critical · 0 warning · 0 info — scanner v4 — 8/3/2026

live_secretremote_code_executionreverse_shelldata_exfiltrationssrf_metadataagent_snoopinganti_refusaldestructive_commandsobfuscated_unicodeunicode_homoglyphopaque_blobsuspicious_urltool_overreachtrigger_abuseprompt_injection_phrasing

IntentSafe

LLM judge · does the skill do what it claims

ContentClean

LLM judge · policy & harmful-content review

Source

Imported

nicepkg / ai-workflow

workflows/stock-trader-workflow/.claude/skills/china-macro-analyst/SKILL.md

View on GitHub ↗

License MITImported 8/3/2026Version v1

Skill contents

SKILL.md

中国宏观分析 (China Macro Analyst)

Overview

Analyze China's macroeconomic environment, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and their implications for equity markets. Interpret key economic indicators, policy signals, and their potential impact on different sectors and investment strategies.

Key Economic Indicators

Growth Indicators

| Indicator | Chinese | Frequency | Release | |-----------|---------|-----------|---------| | GDP Growth | GDP增速 | Quarterly | ~15th of month after quarter | | Industrial Production | 工业增加值 | Monthly | ~15th | | Retail Sales | 社会消费品零售总额 | Monthly | ~15th | | Fixed Asset Investment | 固定资产投资 | Monthly | ~15th |

Price Indicators

| Indicator | Chinese | Frequency | Key Levels | |-----------|---------|-----------|------------| | CPI | 居民消费价格指数 | Monthly | Target ~3% | | PPI | 工业生产者出厂价格指数 | Monthly | Deflation < 0% | | Core CPI | 核心CPI (剔除食品能源) | Monthly | |

Activity Indicators

| Indicator | Chinese | Frequency | Key Levels | |-----------|---------|-----------|------------| | Manufacturing PMI | 制造业PMI | Monthly | Expansion > 50 | | Non-Mfg PMI | 非制造业PMI | Monthly | Expansion > 50 | | Caixin PMI | 财新PMI | Monthly | Private sector focus |

Financial Indicators

| Indicator | Chinese | Frequency | |-----------|---------|-----------| | Social Financing | 社会融资规模 | Monthly | | M2 Growth | M2增速 | Monthly | | New RMB Loans | 新增人民币贷款 | Monthly | | LPR | 贷款市场报价利率 | Monthly (20th) |

External Indicators

| Indicator | Chinese | Frequency | |-----------|---------|-----------| | Exports | 出口 | Monthly | | Imports | 进口 | Monthly | | Trade Balance | 贸易顺差 | Monthly | | FX Reserves | 外汇储备 | Monthly | | RMB Exchange Rate | 人民币汇率 | Daily |

Data Sources

Official Sources:

国家统计局 (stats.gov.cn) - GDP, CPI, PPI, Industrial Production
中国人民银行 (pbc.gov.cn) - Monetary data, interest rates
海关总署 (customs.gov.cn) - Trade data
财政部 (mof.gov.cn) - Fiscal data

Search Strategy:

"指标名称] 月份]" e.g., "中国CPI 12月"
"央行政策类型]" e.g., "央行降准"
"行业] 政策" e.g., "房地产政策最新"

Analysis Framework

1. Economic Data Interpretation

GDP Analysis:

markdown
### GDP数据解读

| 指标 | 本期 | 上期 | 预期 | 解读 |
|-----|------|-----|------|------|
| GDP同比 | X.X% | X.X% | X.X% | 高于/低于/符合预期 |
| GDP环比 | X.X% | X.X% | | |

**分项分析:**
- 第一产业: X.X% (农业)
- 第二产业: X.X% (工业/制造业)
- 第三产业: X.X% (服务业)

**市场影响:**
[分析对股市、债市、汇率的潜在影响]

Inflation Analysis:

markdown
### 通胀数据解读

| 指标 | 本月 | 上月 | 同比 | 环比 |
|-----|------|-----|------|------|
| CPI | | | X.X% | X.X% |
| 核心CPI | | | X.X% | |
| PPI | | | X.X% | X.X% |

**CPI分项:**
- 食品: X.X% (猪肉、蔬菜等)
- 非食品: X.X%
- 服务: X.X%
- 商品: X.X%

**PPI分项:**
- 生产资料: X.X%
- 生活资料: X.X%

**投资含义:**
- CPI上行: [对消费股、债券的影响]
- PPI上行: [对上游资源股、中游制造的影响]
- CPI-PPI剪刀差: [对利润分配的影响]

PMI Analysis:

markdown
### PMI数据解读

| 指标 | 本月 | 上月 | 荣枯线 |
|-----|------|-----|-------|
| 制造业PMI | XX.X | XX.X | 50 |
| 非制造业PMI | XX.X | XX.X | 50 |
| 综合PMI | XX.X | XX.X | 50 |

**制造业分项:**
- 生产指数: XX.X
- 新订单指数: XX.X
- 新出口订单: XX.X
- 原材料库存: XX.X
- 从业人员: XX.X

**信号解读:**
- PMI > 50: 经济扩张
- PMI < 50: 经济收缩
- 连续X月高于/低于荣枯线

2. Monetary Policy Analysis

PBOC Policy Tools:

markdown
### 货币政策工具

**利率工具:**
| 利率 | 当前 | 上次调整 | 方向 |
|-----|------|---------|------|
| 1年LPR | X.XX% | [日期] | 降/升/持平 |
| 5年LPR | X.XX% | [日期] | 降/升/持平 |
| MLF利率 | X.XX% | [日期] | |
| 逆回购利率 | X.XX% | [日期] | |
| 存款准备金率 | X.X% | [日期] | |

**数量工具:**
| 工具 | 本周操作 | 到期量 | 净投放 |
|-----|---------|-------|-------|
| 逆回购 | XXX亿 | XXX亿 | +/-XXX亿 |
| MLF | XXX亿 | XXX亿 | +/-XXX亿 |
| 国库定存 | XXX亿 | | |

**政策信号:**
[解读央行政策取向: 宽松/中性/收紧]

Policy Interpretation:

降准: 释放长期流动性，利好银行、地产
降息: 降低融资成本，利好成长股
结构性工具: 定向支持特定领域 (科技、绿色、小微)
窗口指导: 关注信贷投向变化

3. Fiscal Policy Analysis

Fiscal Data:

markdown
### 财政数据

| 指标 | 本月 | 累计 | 同比 |
|-----|------|-----|------|
| 财政收入 | XXXX亿 | XXXX亿 | X.X% |
| 财政支出 | XXXX亿 | XXXX亿 | X.X% |
| 财政赤字 | | XXXX亿 | |

**地方债:**
- 新增专项债额度: XXXX亿
- 已发行: XXXX亿
- 发行进度: XX%

**投资方向:**
[财政支出重点领域: 基建、民生、科技等]

4. Sector Policy Analysis

Key Policy Areas:

markdown
### 行业政策追踪

**房地产:**
- 限购/限贷政策变化
- 房贷利率调整
- 保交楼政策
- 房企融资政策

**科技/半导体:**
- 自主可控政策
- 科技补贴
- 出口管制应对

**新能源:**
- 新能源汽车补贴
- 光伏/风电政策
- 储能政策

**消费:**
- 促消费政策
- 消费券发放
- 家电下乡/以旧换新

**金融:**
- 金融监管政策
- 注册制改革
- 对外开放措施

5. Market Impact Assessment

Impact Matrix: | Economic Event | A股影响 | 港股影响 | 受益板块 | 受损板块 | |----------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 降准 | + | + | 银行、地产 | - | | 降息 | + | + | 成长股 | 银行 | | CPI上行 | - | - | 消费 | 成长股 | | PMI超预期 | + | + | 周期股 | 防御股 | | 人民币升值 | + | + | 航空、造纸 | 出口股 | | 人民币贬值 | - | - | 纺织出口 | 航空 |

Output Templates

Economic Data Report

markdown
# [指标名称] 数据解读 [日期]

## 数据概览
[核心数据表格]

## 数据解读
[数据含义分析]

## 市场影响
- **对A股:** [影响分析]
- **对港股:** [影响分析]
- **对债市:** [影响分析]
- **对汇率:** [影响分析]

## 投资建议
- 受益板块: [列出]
- 规避板块: [列出]
- 操作建议: [具体建议]

Policy Analysis Report

markdown
# [政策名称] 政策解读

## 政策要点
1. [要点1]
2. [要点2]
3. [要点3]

## 政策背景
[出台背景分析]

## 行业影响
| 行业 | 影响程度 | 影响方向 | 分析 |
|-----|---------|---------|------|
| | 高/中/低 | 正面/负面 | |

## 相关标的
- **直接受益:** [股票列表]
- **间接受益:** [股票列表]
- **可能受损:** [股票列表]

## 投资策略
[基于政策的投资策略建议]

Example Queries

经济数据:

"最新CPI数据怎么解读"
"PMI对股市有什么影响"
"GDP增速低于预期意味着什么"
"社融数据分析"

货币政策:

"央行最近有什么政策"
"降准对股市的影响"
"LPR下调利好哪些板块"
"当前货币政策取向分析"

财政政策:

"专项债发行情况"
"财政政策对基建股的影响"
"政府工作报告解读"

行业政策:

"房地产政策最新变化"
"新能源政策分析"
"科技自主可控相关政策"
"促消费政策有哪些"

综合分析:

"当前宏观经济形势分析"
"政策环境对投资的影响"
"下半年宏观展望"

Want to see if nicepkg/china-macro-analyst would activate on your phrasing? Try it before you install — no LLM call, no signup.

Latest benchmark · publisher runVerified

8/24/2026, 12:49 UTC · 22 cases

Lift

-33%

33% vs 67%

Agent turns

1.0 vs 1.0

Tokens

+110%

4,558.95 vs 2,169.73

fail → pass · 1pass → pass · 16fail → fail · 3pass → fail · 2

Per-case results (22)

Case	Status	Duration (ms)			Turns			Tokens			Tool calls
Case	Status	Without	With	Δ	Without	With	Δ	Without	With	Δ	Without	With	Δ
case-13 When tracking Chinese local government financing for infrastructure expansion, what specific local debt instrument issuance quota and progress must be monitored under fiscal policy analysis? A municipal analyst focuses solely on corporate medium-term notes.	pass→pass	18,128	18,978	+5%	1	1	0%	2,710	5,302	+96%	0	0	—
case-14 A macro strategist wants to evaluate total credit expansion across the Chinese economy. Which broad financial metric aggregated by PBOC should be analyzed alongside bank loans and money supply? An analyst tracks total stock market capitalization as the sole measure of economy-wide credit.	pass→pass	10,219	9,203	-10%	1	1	0%	1,719	3,898	+127%	0	0	—
case-21 Perform a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for Tencent Holdings (700.HK), calculating its weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and projected 5-year terminal value.	pass→pass	24,217	18,781	-22%	1	1	0%	4,778	5,930	+24%	0	0	—
case-11 Explain the profit distribution dynamics between upstream and downstream industries when evaluating the CPI-PPI margin gap in China. An analyst asserts a widening negative CPI-PPI gap expands downstream consumer goods profit margins.	pass→pass	18,442	17,505	-5%	1	1	0%	2,779	5,207	+87%	0	0	—
case-01 I need an analysis of the recent Chinese central bank rate adjustments and monetary easing measures. Present this using a complete Policy Analysis Report framework: start with bulleted core policy takeaways and background context, then include an industry impact evaluation table ranking affected sectors by severity and direction, list directly or indirectly impacted asset categories, and outline strategic investment recommendations.	fail→fail	18,908	34,831	+84%	1	1	0%	2,967	6,465	+118%	0	0	—
case-02 Please evaluate China's recent quarterly GDP performance and sector breakdowns. I would like a structured evaluation containing an overview comparison table of current, prior, and expected growth, a sectoral breakdown, an analysis of macro market implications for A-shares and HK-listed equities, and action-oriented portfolio positioning guidance.	fail→fail	26,031	23,419	-10%	1	1	0%	3,746	5,998	+60%	0	0	—
case-03 A macro investor wants to know how a reduction in China's reserve requirement ratio (RRR cut) typically affects commercial bank stocks versus growth equities compared to an interest rate cut. Which specific sector benefits from RRR cuts but is adversely affected by interest rate cuts? An analyst assumes commercial banks profit equally from both rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts.	pass→pass	13,819	14,850	+7%	1	1	0%	2,314	4,870	+110%	0	0	—
case-04 Analyze the stock market impact of Chinese Renminbi currency movements on specific equity sectors. Which sector benefits from local currency appreciation but is adversely affected by local currency depreciation? An analyst suggests export manufacturers benefit when local currency strengthens.	pass→pass	14,337	12,633	-12%	1	1	0%	2,271	4,589	+102%	0	0	—
case-05 Assess the equity sector implications of a stronger-than-expected China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index print above 50. Contrast the relative performance of cyclical sectors versus defensive sectors. An investor expects defensive dividend stocks to outperform cyclical stocks during economic expansion signals.	pass→pass	17,633	19,495	+11%	1	1	0%	2,597	5,420	+109%	0	0	—
case-06 In analyzing China's macro inflation dynamics, which specific equity sector is identified as benefiting from rising CPI while growth stocks are listed as being adversely affected? An analyst claims growth equities thrive during periods of accelerating consumer price inflation.	pass→pass	10,206	6,387	-37%	1	1	0%	1,544	3,443	+123%	0	0	—
case-12 Structure a monthly inflation report covering consumer price index and producer price index metrics. What column structure is designated for the summary CPI and PPI comparison table? A researcher creates a table with columns for current value, expected value, and variance.	fail→fail	13,968	16,079	+15%	1	1	0%	2,427	5,228	+115%	0	0	—
case-07 When evaluating China's official international trade figures, which official government department is the primary reporting source for national export and import statistics? A trader looks to the Ministry of Commerce as the primary customs trade reporting agency.	pass→pass	3,894	5,394	+39%	1	1	0%	638	3,350	+425%	0	0	—
case-08 Which official Chinese government authority publishes national fiscal revenue, fiscal expenditure, and special local government bond issuance data? An investor checks the National Development and Reform Commission for budget balance data.	pass→pass	9,488	7,309	-23%	1	1	0%	1,432	3,611	+152%	0	0	—
case-09 On what specific day of the month does the People's Bank of China routinely publish updates for the Loan Prime Rate benchmark? A money market dealer expects settings on the 15th of the month.	pass→pass	5,658	5,938	+5%	1	1	0%	1,033	3,364	+226%	0	0	—
case-10 In macroeconomic tracking of Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index surveys, what numeric index score serves as the threshold dividing expansion from contraction? A junior analyst assumes the neutral line is set at 0 or 100.	pass→pass	4,805	6,541	+36%	1	1	0%	836	3,546	+324%	0	0	—
case-15 In tracking weekly central bank open market operations, what calculation must be performed using operation volume and maturing volume to determine net liquidity impact? A money market analyst only lists total gross injection volume.	pass→pass	9,206	7,574	-18%	1	1	0%	1,514	3,604	+138%	0	0	—
case-16 Under sector policy tracking for Chinese real estate, what specific policy metrics should be monitored regarding homebuyer borrowing costs and housing project delivery? An equity analyst tracks land auction tax rates as the primary real estate policy metric.	pass→pass	18,076	16,033	-11%	1	1	0%	2,699	4,888	+81%	0	0	—
case-17 When structuring a manufacturing PMI report, what five specific sub-indices must be presented? A macro analyst includes consumer sentiment, housing starts, import tariffs, corporate tax, and retail velocity.	fail→pass	8,074	9,690	+20%	1	1	0%	1,289	3,974	+208%	0	0	—
case-18 Which official authority is designated as the primary source for Chinese gross domestic product, retail sales, and industrial output metrics? An analyst assumes PBOC publishes national industrial output alongside money supply figures.	pass→pass	5,808	6,148	+6%	1	1	0%	927	3,551	+283%	0	0	—
case-19 In macro evaluation of Chinese exchange rate fluctuations, which export sector specifically benefits from local currency depreciation while airlines suffer? An investor claims heavy industrial machinery manufacturing is the primary beneficiary listed for currency weakness.	pass→pass	14,774	11,697	-21%	1	1	0%	2,080	4,184	+101%	0	0	—
case-20 Evaluate the US Federal Reserve's recent FOMC policy rate decision, analyzing the dots plot projection, US Treasury 10-year yield response, and S&P 500 index movement.	pass→fail	20,039	53,287	+166%	1	1	0%	2,879	4,897	+70%	0	0	—
case-22 Analyze the technical chart pattern for Brent Crude oil futures using 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, MACD momentum divergence, and RSI oversold levels.	pass→fail	15,155	15,638	+3%	1	1	0%	2,555	4,978	+95%	0	0	—

These cases were also screened by the skill’s intent / safety pass.See the Trust review ↗Reproduce this benchmark in Colab ↗

How this skill was measured

DecimalAI ran this skill against gemini-3.6-flash twice over the same eval suite — once with the skill loaded and once without — and compared the two runs case by case. 22 cases were attempted. The headline lift of -33 percentage points is the difference between those two pass rates over the 22 comparable cases. 2 cases got worse with the skill loaded, and they are included in that figure.

Model measured: gemini-3.6-flash
Graded by: gemini-3.6-flash
Grading method: judged
Verification: verified
Pass rate without the skill: 66.7%
Pass rate with the skill: 33.3%
Cases attempted: 22
Cases counted toward lift: 22
Cases that regressed: 2
Skill version measured: v1
Run completed: 8/24/2026, 12:49 UTC

Measured example — same prompt, with vs. without the skill · from the benchmark run · case case-17

Prompt

When structuring a manufacturing PMI report, what five specific sub-indices must be presented? A macro analyst includes consumer sentiment, housing starts, import tariffs, corporate tax, and retail velocity.

Without the skill loaded, the model failed this case. With it loaded, the same prompt on the same model passed. This is one improved case from the latest verified run; every case, including any that regressed, is in the table above.

Show both answers

SkillScore blends 4 signalsno signals yet

BenchmarkRun a verified benchmark with positive lift

Live evalNeeds ≥20 evaluated traces in 30 days

AI ratingNeeds ≥10 rated traces

AdoptionNeeds ≥10 serves across ≥2 orgs in 30 days

Efficiency · separate axis (at equal correctness)+0% turns+116% tokens

Shown for transparency; not credited unless a verified run shows no correctness regression.

No signals yet — run a benchmark or collect evaluated traces to earn a score.

Verified on gemini-3.6-flash · re-tested 4 days ago

Other measured skills in the registry, with their headline benchmark lift.