▸case-01 A venture team is evaluating acquiring BioHealth Corp based on three key assumptions: (1) FDA approval will be granted within 12 months, (2) key research personnel will remain post-acquisition, and (3) office lease terms in Boston can be extended at current rates. The team tends to treat all three assumptions as equally critical risks. Evaluate the sensitivity of the acquisition decision to each assumption, explicitly distinguishing load-bearing assumptions (where failure flips the acquisition decision) from decorative assumptions (where failure alters minor execution details but the core acquisition remains sound). | pass→pass | 15,432 | 20,933 | +36% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,413 | 3,509 | +45% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-02 An enterprise IT team decided to migrate their ERP to Cloud Provider X based on four explicit assumptions: high availability SLAs will be met, migration downtime will stay under 4 hours, cloud bandwidth costs will remain flat, and local staff will learn the new console within two weeks. The lead architect wants to focus exclusively on the high availability assumption. Perform a sensitivity analysis across the decision context that provides a sensitivity rating for every one of the four assumptions rather than analyzing only the preferred assumption. | pass→pass | 14,905 | 21,630 | +45% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,437 | 3,325 | +36% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-03 A retail chain plans to expand into 50 new regional locations based on two primary assumptions: local consumer demand remains strong, and supply chain logistics costs stay below $12 per unit shipped. Analyzed individually, a 15% increase in shipping costs does not invalidate the expansion, and a 10% dip in demand does not invalidate it either. Evaluate the combined interaction effect between these two assumptions if both market conditions degrade simultaneously. | pass→pass | 15,155 | 19,271 | +27% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,336 | 3,408 | +46% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-04 A B2B software vendor is planning to switch from perpetual licensing to a recurring SaaS model based on customer churn, infrastructure hosting cost, and sales team retraining assumptions. The board wants a comprehensive risk report. Beyond evaluating individual assumptions, evaluate the overall decision robustness rating for this business model transition. | pass→pass | 28,483 | 24,730 | -13% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 4,067 | 3,870 | -5% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-05 A logistics company is assessing whether to deploy an autonomous truck fleet based on six complex, interconnected regulatory, hardware reliability, and labor agreement assumptions. The analyst is tempted to evaluate each assumption in a separate isolated prompt thread to avoid context overload. Specify the optimal execution structure for evaluating these interconnected assumptions when conducting a sensitivity assessment. | fail→pass | 14,996 | 10,899 | -27% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,222 | 1,891 | -15% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-06 A municipal utility is evaluating a $200M grid modernization project based on: (1) electricity demand growth reaching 4% annually, (2) solar panel battery cost dropping by 20%, and (3) city permits being processed within standard 30-day windows. The planning committee assumes permit delays will cancel the project's viability. Perform a sensitivity analysis to determine whether city permit processing speed is a load-bearing assumption or merely a decorative assumption relative to the core investment decision. | pass→pass | 18,450 | 32,700 | +77% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,900 | 4,281 | +48% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-07 A hardware company is launching a smart home hub based on assumptions regarding component supply availability, retail channel placement, consumer willingness to pay $199, and software ecosystem compatibility. A product manager only rated component availability and consumer pricing. Provide a complete sensitivity mapping that contains a sensitivity rating for every assumption listed and details interaction effects among them. | pass→pass | 18,095 | 18,381 | +2% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,679 | 3,224 | +20% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-08 A biotech firm is deciding whether to initiate Phase III trials in Latin America. Their decision rests on trial site recruitment speed, regulatory approval timelines, and cold-chain storage logistics. The chief scientific officer wants to know if the overall strategy is fragile or resilient. Deliver a sensitivity report that includes an overall decision robustness rating. | pass→pass | 20,498 | 25,698 | +25% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,129 | 4,051 | +29% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-09 A financial firm is evaluating transitioning 100% of staff to remote work based on three assumptions: (1) cybersecurity protocols maintain compliance, (2) employee productivity remains at or above current baselines, and (3) local office furniture resale yields $50,000. Analyze these assumptions to separate load-bearing assumptions that flip the decision from decorative assumptions that merely affect minor financial balances. | pass→pass | 13,447 | 13,827 | +3% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,249 | 2,324 | +3% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-10 An e-commerce merchant is leasing three fulfillment centers based on assumptions regarding average shipping delivery times under 2 days and warehouse labor hourly rates staying under $22/hr. A naive assessment suggests neither factor alone causes operational failure at moderate variance. Evaluate the interaction effect between labor wage increases and delivery delay penalties occurring concurrently. | pass→pass | 20,830 | 28,886 | +39% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,031 | 4,697 | +55% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-11 An enterprise infrastructure team is evaluating moving data centers to 100% renewable power based on eight distinct green energy availability and grid interconnect assumptions. The team plans to assign eight different junior analysts to evaluate one assumption each in total isolation without seeing the others. Recommend the correct evaluation architecture for capturing interaction effects across these assumptions. | fail→fail | 39,811 | 22,882 | -43% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,383 | 3,674 | +166% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-12 A digital bank is deciding whether to rewrite its iOS/Android codebase in Flutter. Assumptions: (1) developer velocity doubles within 6 months, (2) plugin parity with native SDKs exists for core security modules, (3) app store approval times remain unchanged. Perform a sensitivity analysis that satisfies standard decision-gate requirements including sensitivity ratings for every assumption, critical load-bearing identification, interaction effects, and overall decision robustness. | pass→pass | 27,056 | 26,223 | -3% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,960 | 4,247 | +7% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-13 A university board is considering opening a satellite campus in London based on international student enrollment growth, visa policy stability, and local cafeteria vendor contract terms. The committee believes vendor contract terms are as crucial as visa policies. Analyze the sensitivity of the satellite campus decision to identify which assumption is genuinely load-bearing versus decorative. | pass→pass | 16,570 | 18,205 | +10% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,405 | 2,917 | +21% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-14 A factory manager considers spending $15M on robotic arms based on two assumptions: (A) raw material defect rate remains below 1%, and (B) electricity cost per kWh remains under $0.14. Analyzed independently, a small spike in defect rates or power costs is manageable. Evaluate the interaction effect when raw material defects rise while electricity costs simultaneously surge. | pass→pass | 15,502 | 19,549 | +26% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,102 | 2,978 | +42% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-15 A corporate procurement group plans to consolidate 12 component suppliers down to 1 primary vendor based on bulk discount tier assumptions, delivery timeline guarantees, and vendor insolvency risk. The VP of Supply Chain needs a summary evaluation that culminates in an overall decision robustness rating. | pass→pass | 18,603 | 22,265 | +20% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,713 | 3,584 | +32% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-16 An open-source database team wants to dual-license their software under AGPLv3 and Commercial terms. They identified five underlying assumptions: developer adoption stays high, enterprise compliance departments require commercial licenses, cloud providers do not fork the code, community contributors accept the CLA, and hosting costs remain stable. A manager wants to skip rating community CLA acceptance. Ensure sensitivity analysis provides a sensitivity rating for every single one of the five assumptions. | pass→pass | 15,301 | 18,042 | +18% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,333 | 3,114 | +33% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-17 A hospital system plans to expand virtual urgent care based on assumptions: (1) insurance reimbursement rates match in-person visits, (2) patient internet access is sufficient, and (3) virtual waiting room background music licenses are renewed. Identify which assumptions are load-bearing and which are decorative. | pass→pass | 8,879 | 9,754 | +10% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,382 | 1,753 | +27% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-18 A law firm is buying enterprise AI licenses assuming: (1) token API costs stay below $0.02 per 1k tokens, and (2) associate time savings average 3 hours per week. If token costs double, the ROI is slightly reduced. If time savings drop to 1.5 hours, ROI drops slightly. Analyze the interaction effect if token costs double while time savings drop simultaneously. | pass→pass | 14,688 | 18,289 | +25% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,390 | 3,047 | +27% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-19 A software company plans to open an engineering office in Eastern Europe based on talent pool availability, tax incentive longevity, and currency exchange rate stability. Provide a sensitivity map that concludes with an overall decision robustness rating for opening the hub. | pass→pass | 18,406 | 39,796 | +116% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,890 | 4,545 | +57% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-20 We are preparing to launch a new direct-to-consumer beverage line. We do not have a list of assumptions yet. Read our business plan summary and extract all implicit financial, operational, and marketing assumptions from the document, and brainstorm red-team counterarguments against each. | fail→fail | 13,613 | 4,916 | -64% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,978 | 956 | -52% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-21 Here is a financial spreadsheet model for a real estate development project with NPV, IRR, discount rate (8% to 12%), and terminal cap rate (4% to 6%). Generate a 2D numerical sensitivity grid in Markdown table format showing the resulting project NPV ($ millions) for each combination of discount rate and cap rate. | pass→fail | 10,904 | 29,901 | +174% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,184 | 6,388 | +192% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-22 We already know our load-bearing assumption for our international market launch is local regulatory approval. Assuming local regulatory approval fails, draft a multi-step contingency execution plan and contract renegotiation strategy to pivot our sales team into domestic B2B channels. | pass→pass | 21,843 | 20,805 | -5% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,321 | 3,273 | -1% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-23 A ride-hailing firm is launching a robotaxi pilot in Phoenix based on: (1) sensor hardware cost remaining under $15,000 per vehicle, (2) severe weather occurrences remaining under 5 days per year, and (3) custom branded floor mats being delivered on schedule. Differentiate between load-bearing and decorative assumptions for this pilot program. | pass→pass | 11,173 | 14,321 | +28% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,763 | 2,403 | +36% | 0 | 0 | — |