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Systematic extraction, challenge, and sensitivity analysis of assumptions underlying a decision to identify load-bearing beliefs.
Passed 19 of 22 test cases with the skill, and 6 of 22 without it.
and 23 more in the full report
15 fixed4 passed either way1 still failing2 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 15 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
Our leadership team decided to delay our Series A pitch by six months to focus exclusively on product-led viral expansion. To ensure we aren't moving forward on blind faith, please highlight all hidden dependencies in this roadmap, stress-test every single assumption with counter-arguments, and produce a sensitivity assessment showing which specific assumptions would destroy our runway if proven false.
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| Categorizes the confidence level of at least five extracted assumptions using HIGH (>80%), MEDIUM (50-80%), or LOW (<50%) brackets | Missed | Passed |
| presents counter-arguments and alternative opposite beliefs for all identified assumptions | Passed | Passed |
| Outputs a sensitivity mapping identifying which low-confidence assumptions are critical to the runway decision | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
A three-phase tactic that surfaces hidden assumptions, challenges each one adversarially, and maps which assumptions are load-bearing for the conclusion. Decisions often rest on unstated beliefs — this tactic makes them explicit and tests their strength.
| SOP | Phase | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| assumption-extraction | Extract | Surface hidden assumptions with confidence |
| assumption-challenge | Challenge | Attack each assumption adversarially |
| conclusion-sensitivity | Sensitivity | Map load-bearing assumptions |
= 5 assumptions extracted with confidence levels
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
test cases passed, vs 6 / 22 without
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