Loading skill
Install any skill in seconds. Free to start, no credit card required.
Get Started Free →asgard-ai-platform/econ-business-cycle
Analyze business cycle phases (expansion, peak, contraction, trough) and their implications for business strategy and policy response.
Passed 21 of 22 test cases with the skill, and 10 of 22 without it.
and 12 more in the full report
11 fixed10 passed either way1 still failing0 broke
Tokens, turns and time describe resource use, not a dollar price.
One of 11 test cases the skill fixed. Same model, same prompt, with and without the skill.
Evaluate the Mexican economy (PMI 46.5, yield curve -10 bps, industrial output -0.5%) and format as a Markdown assessment titled '# Business Cycle Assessment: Mexico'.
| Checked | Without skill | With skill |
|---|---|---|
| Includes the exact Markdown header ## Phase Progression. | Missed | Passed |
The instructions your model reads when the skill loads.
The business cycle describes recurring fluctuations in economic activity: expansion → peak → contraction → trough → expansion. Understanding the current phase helps businesses time investments, manage inventory, and prepare for downturns or recoveries.
IRON LAW: Cycles Are Inevitable, Timing Is Not Predictable
Business cycles WILL happen — no economy grows forever. But predicting
EXACTLY when a peak or trough occurs is unreliable. Focus on identifying
the CURRENT phase and preparing for the NEXT one, not predicting exact
turning points.
| Phase | Characteristics | Key Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion | Rising GDP, falling unemployment, growing profits, rising asset prices | PMI > 50, yield curve normal, consumer confidence rising |
| Peak | Economy at maximum output, inflation accelerating, capacity constraints | PMI declining from highs, inflation above target, central bank tightening |
| Contraction | Falling GDP, rising unemployment, declining profits, credit tightening | PMI < 50, yield curve may invert, layoffs increasing |
| Trough | Economy at minimum, excess capacity, low inflation, maximum pessimism | PMI stabilizing, central bank easing, inventories depleted |
| Phase | Business Strategy | Financial Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion | Invest in capacity, hire, launch new products | Lock in fixed-rate debt, build reserves |
| Peak | Reduce inventory, tighten credit terms, prepare cost cuts | Reduce leverage, increase cash position |
| Contraction | Cut costs, preserve cash, acquire distressed assets | Extend debt maturities, negotiate with creditors |
test cases passed, vs 10 / 22 without
More skills from the same source and nearby in the registry, with their headline benchmark lift.