Traction Test Planner

Use this skill to design traction tests that create decision-quality evidence. It turns a candidate channel strategy into a scoped experiment with assumptions, metrics, budget, duration, and next-step rules.

Source Traceability

Primary source: Traction, chapters 3 and 4, plus the appendix.

• Chapter 3 defines the three core test questions for middle-ring channels.

Authoring notes: converted lines 585-606.

• Chapter 4 distinguishes cheap channel tests from optimization and explains

inner-ring testing. Authoring notes: converted lines 675-786.

• The appendix lists phase I test prompts for the 19 traction channels.

Authoring notes: converted lines 3323-3372.

See middle-ring-test-prompts.md for paraphrased starter tests by channel.

Test Types

Middle-Ring Test

Use when validating whether a channel strategy could become the core channel. Keep it cheap, fast, and strategy-level.

Answer:

1. Acquisition cost: what would it cost to acquire a customer?
2. Reach: how many relevant customers may be available?
3. Fit: are these customers desirable right now?

Inner-Ring Test

Use after a core channel is chosen. Inner-ring tests optimize the winning strategy or search for a better strategy inside the same channel.

Examples:

• Test a new audience, keyword group, offer, landing page, creative angle, or

partner segment.

• Run A/B tests where traffic and measurement are already in place.
• Use other channels only as support for the core channel, not as competing

strategies.

Workflow

1. State The Decision

Write the decision the test must enable. Good tests decide something specific:

• Continue, kill, or revise this channel strategy.
• Promote this channel into the inner ring.
• Scale spend, hold spend, or change audience.
• Choose between two channel strategies.

2. Write Assumptions

List the assumptions that must be true for the strategy to work.

Use this structure:

| Assumption | How Test Measures It | Kill Threshold | |------------|----------------------|----------------|

3. Set Metrics

At minimum, include:

• Reach available.
• Conversion rate.
• Cost to acquire a customer.
• Customer quality or intent.
• Lifetime value estimate, if available.

If the user lacks analytics, include a setup step before the test. A test without tracking creates anecdotes, not evidence.

4. Bound Budget And Time

For early-stage tests, prefer less than one month and a small budget. If the user proposes a large test before there is evidence, reduce scope.

5. Define Outcomes Before Running

Every test needs decision rules:

• Double down when results beat the success threshold and customer quality is

acceptable.

• Iterate when one metric fails but the channel shows a fixable signal.
• Kill when reach, cost, or customer fit cannot plausibly move the traction

goal.

Output Format

markdown
# Traction Test Plan

## Decision
[What this test will decide.]

## Channel Strategy
- Channel:
- Strategy:
- Target customer:
- Stage:

## Assumptions
| Assumption | Measurement | Threshold |
|------------|-------------|-----------|

## Experiment Design
- Setup:
- Audience/source:
- Offer/message:
- Landing or conversion path:
- Budget:
- Duration:

## Metrics
| Metric | Target | Tracking Method |
|--------|--------|-----------------|

## Decision Rules
- Double down if:
- Iterate if:
- Kill if:

## Next Step After Test
[What to do for each likely outcome.]

Quality Bar

• Do not design tests that only measure vanity traffic.
• Do not optimize multiple variables before validating strategy-level promise.
• Make tracking explicit before the test starts.
• Prefer comparable metrics across channels.
• Call out when the test cannot plausibly move the user's traction goal.