Budget Planning (Global)

> A budget is not a fixed number — it is a decision tool: where you place bets and when you pull back. The leader must know total spend, ROI per channel, what to increase, and what to cut. Run 10-reverse-kpi-global first to derive the minimum budget from the revenue target before allocating anything.

Information gathering

Read .agents/product-marketing-context-global.md, the marketing plan, and the previous period's report if available. If missing, ask up to 4 questions:

1. Total budget and planning period? How much, for a month, a quarter, or a year (USD)?
2. Revenue target for the period? Needed to compute marketing as a percent of revenue and the minimum viable budget.
3. Active channels and last period's ROI? Meta / TikTok / Google / email + SMS / affiliates / agency — which has the best ROAS or CPA?
4. Any large campaign needing a reserve? Launch, Black Friday / Cyber Monday, or another seasonal peak.

Principles

1. Budget follows performance. Do not stay rigid to the opening plan. Channels that work get more; channels that do not get cut.
2. Always hold 10-15% in reserve. Never allocate everything on day one. The reserve covers unexpected opportunities and incidents.
3. Every dollar has a measurable KPI. "Branding you cannot measure" is not an acceptable line item.
4. Do not spread evenly. Concentrate on the best-performing channel. New channels get a minimum test allocation (10-15%) first.
5. Plan backwards from revenue, not from channels. The budget is the output of a revenue equation, not an arbitrary number.
6. Do not divide the annual budget evenly across quarters. Median Meta CPM in Q4 runs roughly 26% above Q1 (references/benchmarks-global.md), so identical monthly spend buys materially less reach in Q4. Either front-load acquisition into cheap Q1 months or explicitly reserve a larger Q4 allocation for the same volume.

Workflow

1. Choose the budget-setting method

| Method | How it works | Strength | Weakness | |--------|--------------|----------|----------| | Percent of revenue | Budget = X% of expected revenue | Simple | Ignores growth stage | | Backwards from targets (recommended) | Set revenue > derive CAC/CPL > derive spend | Logical, evidence-based | Needs historical CAC/CPL | | Competitive benchmark | Match category spend norms | Avoids under-investment | Ignores your own conditions |

Seven-step backwards calculation (full detail in 10-reverse-kpi-global):

1. Target revenue
2. / AOV                        = orders needed
3. / close rate (30-50%)        = hot leads needed
4. / nurture CVR (50-60%)       = warm leads needed
5. / lead capture CVR (20-40%)  = total reach needed
6. total leads x CPL            = minimum ad budget
7. + content + tools + agency   = total marketing budget

Build 3 scenarios: Conservative (CVR below category median, CPL above), Base case (at median), Optimistic (post-optimization). Plan against Base; prepare cashflow against Conservative.

2. Allocate by bucket

| Bucket | Suggested share | Purpose | |--------|-----------------|---------| | Paid ads (performance) | 50-65% | Meta, TikTok, Google, retargeting | | Content production | 10-15% | Video, design, copywriting | | Creators / UGC / affiliates | 5-10% | Social proof, third-party reach | | Agency / freelancers | Per scope | If used | | Tools / software | 2-5% | Ad tools, design, email/CRM, analytics | | Campaign reserve | 10-15% | Opportunities and incidents — NOT pre-allocated |

3. Allocate by channel

Starting split (adjust to your category and your own data):

| Channel | Share of ad budget | Objective | Expected CPA / ROAS | |---------|--------------------|-----------|---------------------| | Meta Ads (Facebook + Instagram) | 45-60% | Lead / purchase | | | TikTok Ads | 15-20% | Awareness / lead | | | Google Search + Shopping | 15-25% | High-intent capture | | | Email + SMS (Klaviyo, Mailchimp, Attentive) | 5-10% | Retention, nurture, retargeting | | | New channel (test) | 10-15% | Validate | |

For B2B, shift toward LinkedIn and Search — LinkedIn CPM runs $30-100+, so plan a higher CPL and a longer payback window. Allocation logic: channels with strong ROAS or CPA get a larger share; new channels get the minimum test allocation first; never divide evenly.

4. Split by funnel and by test vs scale

Standard performance split inside each channel:

| Purpose | Share | Note | |---------|-------|------| | Testing (new creative + audiences) | 30% | Always keep testing — creative fatigue arrives fast | | Scale (confirmed winners) | 50% | Only scale campaigns with winning data | | Retargeting | 15% | Warm audience — cheapest CPA in the funnel | | Lookalike / similar audiences | 5% | Expansion from converter seeds |

By funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness), MOFU (lead/nurture), BOFU (conversion/retargeting). The ratio depends on stage: a launch skews TOFU, a mature program skews BOFU and retention.

5. Allocate by campaign and month

| Campaign | Month | Budget (USD) | Objective | KPI | |----------|-------|--------------|-----------|-----| | Always-on (retargeting + nurture) | Full period | | | | | Campaign A (launch or seasonal) | | | | | | Testing budget | Full period | | New channels or angles | | | Reserve | — | 10-15% | | |

Seasonality overlay before locking monthly numbers:

| Period | Media cost vs Q1 | Planning implication | |--------|------------------|----------------------| | January | ~-21% below Q1 average | Cheapest acquisition window — stock budget here if cashflow allows | | Q2-Q3 | Rising | Normal operating cadence, build audiences for Q4 | | October | ~+10% | Start of the expensive window | | November | ~+27% (peak) | Reserve extra budget or accept lower volume | | Q4 average | ~+26% above Q1 | Do not plan Q4 at Q1 unit costs |

In US election years, political spend displaces commercial inventory and adds roughly 20-40% to CPM in the last 30 days before the vote — build that into Q4 plans for US-targeted campaigns.

6. Scale-up and stop-loss rules

Increase budget when (BOTH conditions hold):

• ROAS above 1.5x target for 7+ consecutive days, OR CPA at or below 70% of target with sufficient volume
• Audience not yet saturated (frequency below 2.5)
• Increment: +20-30% per step, never a sudden doubling

Cut or pause when (stop-loss):

| Condition | Action | |-----------|--------| | ROAS below break-even for 14 days | Cut the channel or campaign, move budget to what works | | CPA above 2x target after 7 days of testing | Pause, replace creative or audience before restarting | | Frequency above 4 | Audience saturation — stop scaling, refresh creative | | Spend above 110% of the monthly plan | Cap daily budgets, review the allocation |

Weekly CPA review rule (expressed relative to your own target, since absolute CPA varies 3-5x between regions and industries):

| CPA vs target | Frequency | Verdict | |---------------|-----------|---------| | <= 70% of target | < 2.0 | WIN — scale +20-30% | | 70-100% of target | < 2.5 | Acceptable — monitor | | 100-130% of target | 2.0-2.5 | Optimize — replace creative | | > 130% of target | > 2.5 | PAUSE and replace |

Set the target itself using references/benchmarks-global.md for your region and industry, not a global average. Never increase budget while CPA is deteriorating — fix creative or tracking first.

7. Tracker and review cadence

| Month | Planned budget | Actual spend | Variance | ROAS / ROI | Note | |-------|----------------|--------------|----------|------------|------| | Month 1 | | | | | | | Month 2 | | | | | | | Month 3 | | | | | | | Quarter total | | | | | |

| Cadence | Work | Output | |---------|------|--------| | Weekly | Review CPA and ROAS per channel, apply the step-6 decision rules | Immediate adjustment when a threshold trips | | Monthly | Review the full allocation, reconcile plan vs actual | Rebalance for next month | | Quarterly | Review overall allocation strategy and LTV:CAC | Strategy adjustment |

Unit economics health — LTV:CAC:

| Ratio | Meaning | Action | |-------|---------|--------| | < 1:1 | Losing money on every customer | Stop scaling, fix product or price | | 1:1 to 3:1 | Break-even to viable | Optimize conversion, raise AOV | | > 3:1 | Healthy | Begin scaling | | > 5:1 | Strong | Increase ad budget aggressively |

Output structure

File name: budget-plan-[brand-name]-[YYYYMMDD].md — contains: I. Budget overview (total, revenue target, marketing as % of revenue, period) · II. Bucket allocation · III. Channel allocation · IV. Test vs scale split · V. Campaign and monthly allocation with seasonality overlay · VI. Decision rules and stop-loss thresholds · VII. Plan-vs-actual tracker · VIII. Review cadence.

Related skills

• 10-reverse-kpi-global: derive the minimum budget from the revenue target — run before allocating.
• 00-marketing-plan-global: the budget plan is the detailed version of the plan's budget section.
• 54-media-plan-global: turn the ad budget into a concrete campaign and ad-set level media plan.
• 21-ads-audit-global: audit a channel that repeatedly trips the stop-loss thresholds.
• 07-marketing-report-global: budget reconciliation inside the monthly report.

Quality checklist

• ] Budget derived backwards from the revenue target, with 3 scenarios
• ] All 3 allocation layers present: bucket > channel > campaign/month
• ] Test vs scale split explicit (testing 30 / scale 50 / retargeting 15 / lookalike 5)
• ] 10-15% reserve held back, not pre-allocated
• ] Scale-up and stop-loss thresholds use concrete numbers (ROAS, CPA vs target, frequency, days)
• ] New channels receive only a 10-15% test allocation
• ] Every budget line has a measurable KPI attached
• ] Monthly plan accounts for Q4 media inflation rather than dividing the year evenly
• ] Plan-vs-actual tracker exists by month
• ] Weekly, monthly, and quarterly review cadence with defined outputs
• ] LTV:CAC checked before any scale decision