Counterfactual Reasoning

Reason about what would happen if a variable were different. "If X had not occurred, would Y still have happened?" This is the gold standard for causal identification.

Available SOPs

• causal-chain-query — trace causal paths to identify dependencies
• contradiction-flagging — flag when counterfactual contradicts observed evidence
• confidence-scoring — assess confidence in counterfactual conclusions

Guiding Principles

• Minimal change. Counterfactuals should change only the target variable, holding all else constant.
• Mechanism required. A counterfactual without a mechanism is speculation, not reasoning.
• Multiple paths. If Y can be caused by X through multiple paths, removing X may not remove Y.
• Temporal ordering. Causes precede effects. Counterfactuals that violate temporal order are invalid.

Minimum Yield

<HARD-GATE> ≥1 counterfactual assessment with explicit mechanism and confidence score per invocation. </HARD-GATE>

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Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use | | --- | --- | | causal-chain-query | SOP for tracing causal chains — follow edges from cause to effect through intermediate variables. | | confidence-scoring | SOP for assigning calibrated confidence scores to causal claims based on evidence quality and quantity. | | contradiction-flagging | SOP for flagging contradictions in the causal model — identify conflicting evidence or mechanism claims. |

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