▸case-05 Perform a standard forward-looking trend projection for solar panel adoption in California through 2030 based on existing market data, assuming current policy trajectory remains unchanged. | pass→pass | 19,059 | 19,239 | +1% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,982 | 3,317 | +11% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-01 Here is our business proposal for launching product X in Europe. I'd like you to perform a counterfactual simulation by removing the supply chain tariff assumption entirely. Please outline the resulting world scenario, indicate if the original revenue conclusion holds, weakens, or flips, trace any cascading operational effects, and verify whether the counterfactual world maintains internal consistency. | fail→fail | 17,525 | 16,576 | -5% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,536 | 2,529 | -0% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-02 I am sharing this technical incident report. I want to construct an alternative timeline where we strengthen the rate-limiting configuration by a factor of ten. Please present the counterfactual narrative description, assess the final status of the outage conclusion, list the cascading effects on downstream microservices, and confirm whether the reconstructed scenario is internally consistent. | fail→fail | 17,601 | 5,398 | -69% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,589 | 1,149 | -56% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-03 Based on this draft research paper on economic policy, alter the 'tax incentive model' factor by inverting its rate structure. Deliver a description of the counterfactual scenario, evaluate whether the employment impact conclusion holds, weakens, flips, or remains indeterminate, detail all secondary cascading effects across tax revenues, and provide an internal consistency check for the scenario. | fail→fail | 26,000 | 18,155 | -30% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,706 | 2,875 | -22% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-04 Analyze the actual historic log files from the November Postgres database outage for payments-service to determine the root cause of the deadlock, without creating counterfactual or alternative scenarios. | fail→fail | 5,387 | 20,323 | +277% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 795 | 3,455 | +335% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-06 Run a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis across a continuous range of interest rate inputs (0% to 10%) for the Acumen real estate portfolio valuation model, generating a distribution curve of expected net present values. | pass→pass | 26,346 | 27,141 | +3% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 4,899 | 4,741 | -3% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-07 In the Phase III protocol for oncology drug Trial-402, evaluate a counterfactual world where the target patient dosage factor is weakened by 50%. Provide the scenario narrative, evaluate if efficacy holds, weakens, flips, or is indeterminate, trace cascading biological effects, and include a consistency check. | fail→pass | 17,551 | 9,251 | -47% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,741 | 1,656 | -40% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-08 In the architecture specification for Order Processing Service v2, construct a counterfactual world where the asynchronous queue consumer behavior factor is inverted from FIFO to LIFO processing. Report the counterfactual scenario, conclusion status for latency SLAs, cascading queue congestion effects, and internal consistency check. | fail→fail | 39,358 | 13,716 | -65% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,265 | 2,131 | +68% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-09 Review the credit decision memo for Borrower-8821. Construct a counterfactual scenario where we strengthen the debt-to-income threshold factor from 45% to 30%. Outline the altered scenario, report whether the credit approval conclusion holds, weakens, flips, or is indeterminate, list cascading portfolio impacts, and check scenario consistency. | pass→pass | 17,110 | 19,701 | +15% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,734 | 3,010 | +10% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-10 Given the National Grid 2035 decarbonization roadmap, construct a counterfactual scenario by removing the offshore wind capacity expansion factor entirely. Provide the counterfactual scenario narrative, conclusion status on net-zero target feasibility, cascading grid stability effects, and scenario consistency check. | fail→pass | 23,377 | 17,303 | -26% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,425 | 2,595 | -24% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-11 We have the Q4 product launch plan for SmartWatch Ultra. Construct a counterfactual world where the influencer marketing budget factor is inverted from high-growth spending to zero spend. Ensure the task is executed by spawning a dedicated counterfactual subagent. | fail→fail | 15,568 | 11,109 | -29% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,311 | 817 | -65% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-12 Taking the Disaster Recovery Blueprint for CloudRegion-West, construct a counterfactual scenario where we weaken the primary offsite backup replication frequency factor from real-time to daily. Delegate the scenario construction to a subagent. | fail→fail | 13,704 | 7,727 | -44% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,041 | 476 | -77% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-13 Evaluate the global logistics strategy document for RetailCo. Construct a counterfactual world where the geopolitical trade route factor is altered by inverting regional tariff structures, where secondary market reactions are unpredictable. Output the scenario, conclusion status, cascading impacts, and scenario consistency. | fail→pass | 13,905 | 18,367 | +32% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,951 | 3,001 | +54% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-14 In the quantitative strategy memo for AlphaFund-9, construct a counterfactual scenario where the high-frequency latency advantage factor is removed. What is the scenario, does the strategy profitability conclusion hold, weaken, flip, or remain indeterminate, what are cascading effects, and is the scenario consistent? | pass→fail | 22,195 | 9,515 | -57% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,124 | 1,014 | -68% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-15 Review the pricing transition plan for Enterprise SaaS SaaSCo. Construct a counterfactual scenario where we strengthen the freemium feature restrictions factor by locking advanced API access behind paid tiers. Execute this via a spawned subagent. | fail→fail | 15,447 | 4,369 | -72% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,225 | 457 | -79% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-16 For the AI Safety Governance Framework document, build a counterfactual scenario where we weaken the human-in-the-loop oversight factor from mandatory sign-off to optional advisory. List scenario narrative, conclusion status regarding deployment risk, cascading organizational effects, and consistency check. | pass→pass | 18,250 | 13,098 | -28% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,630 | 2,151 | -18% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-17 Regarding Metro City's 2030 Transit Expansion Proposal, construct a counterfactual scenario removing the light rail line segment factor entirely. Output the counterfactual world description, conclusion status on ridership targets, cascading traffic congestion effects, and internal consistency check. | fail→pass | 14,397 | 15,613 | +8% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,059 | 2,586 | +26% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-18 In the thermal management spec for Satellite-X, construct a counterfactual scenario where we strengthen the copper heat sink thickness factor by 2x. Output scenario details, conclusion status on payload launch weight compliance, cascading structural effects, and consistency check. | fail→pass | 34,757 | 18,899 | -46% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1,260 | 2,914 | +131% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-19 Based on the 3nm Wafer Yield Analysis for Fab-12, construct a counterfactual scenario where we invert the cleanroom particle filtration efficiency factor from 99.99% to 80%. Provide scenario narrative, conclusion status on wafer profitability, cascading defect rate effects, and scenario consistency check. | fail→pass | 16,843 | 21,987 | +31% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,585 | 3,523 | +36% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-20 In the Batch Release Quality SOP for Biologics-Vial-9, construct a counterfactual world where we weaken the temperature control tolerance factor from ±1°C to ±5°C. Deliver scenario narrative, conclusion status for batch sterility assertion, cascading stability effects, and consistency check. | fail→pass | 21,993 | 19,589 | -11% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 3,457 | 3,457 | 0% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-21 From the AV Safety Driver Assessment Report for Fleet-7, construct a counterfactual scenario where we remove the LIDAR sensor redundancy factor. Deliver counterfactual scenario description, conclusion status for collision rate safety claims, cascading perception sensor load effects, and consistency check. | pass→fail | 16,133 | 5,110 | -68% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,276 | 592 | -74% | 0 | 0 | — |
▸case-22 In the Undergraduate Admissions Selection Policy document, construct a counterfactual world where we strengthen the standardized test score weight factor by doubling its relative points. Provide scenario narrative, conclusion status on diversity goals, cascading applicant pool effects, and scenario consistency. | fail→fail | 18,105 | 17,522 | -3% | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2,756 | 2,795 | +1% | 0 | 0 | — |