Systems Thinking

Systems Thinking

Framework

IRON LAW: First-Order Fixes in Complex Systems Produce Second-Order
Backlash Within 2 Cycles — Map the Feedback Loop BEFORE Intervening

Agents default to "fix the symptom directly" (e.g., high turnover → raise
salaries). In systems with feedback loops, the direct fix triggers a
compensating response that makes the original problem worse OR creates
a new one (raise salaries → budget squeeze → cut training → worse
onboarding → higher turnover). Before recommending any intervention,
draw the causal loop diagram and identify at least one reinforcing and
one balancing loop. If you can't find any, the problem may not be a
systems problem — don't force the framework.

Analysis Steps

Key concepts assumed known: feedback loops (reinforcing/balancing), emergence, delays, leverage points, stocks and flows. For system archetypes (Fixes That Fail, Shifting the Burden, Limits to Growth, etc.) see references/system-archetypes.md.

1. Define the system boundary: What's in, what's out?
2. Map key variables: What are the important stocks (quantities that accumulate)?
3. Identify feedback loops: Which loops are reinforcing? Which are balancing?
4. Find delays: Where is cause separated from effect in time?
5. Locate leverage points: Where would small interventions produce the biggest shift?
6. Check for unintended consequences: What might this intervention break elsewhere in the system?

Output Format

# Systems Analysis: {Problem}

## System Boundary
- In scope: ...
- Out of scope: ...