Cognitive Bias Analysis

Cognitive Bias Analysis

Overview

Cognitive biases are systematic deviations from rational judgment. They're not random errors — they're predictable patterns that affect everyone, including experts. This skill helps identify which biases are at play in a specific decision context and design countermeasures.

Framework

IRON LAW: Name the Specific Bias, Not Just "Bias"

"This decision might be biased" is not analysis. Identify the SPECIFIC
bias by name, explain its mechanism, and show how it applies to this
particular situation. Different biases require different countermeasures.

Bias Audit Process

1. Describe the decision: What is being decided? By whom? Based on what evidence?
2. Identify potential biases by name: Which specific biases (confirmation, anchoring, sunk cost, groupthink, overconfidence, availability, etc.) could be influencing this decision?
3. Find the evidence: What specific behavior or reasoning pattern indicates the bias?
4. Assess impact: How much does this bias affect the decision quality? (High/Med/Low)
5. Design countermeasures: What specific debiasing technique addresses each identified bias?

For the full bias catalog (12 biases × mechanism × example) and debiasing techniques per bias, see references/debiasing-protocols.md.

Output Format

# Cognitive Bias Audit: {Decision Context}

## Decision Under Review
- Decision: {what is being decided}
- Decision-makers: {who}
- Current leaning: {which way they're leaning}

## Biases Identified
| Bias | Evidence | Impact | Countermeasure |
|------|----------|--------|---------------|